The Washington State Cougars take on the Utah State Aggies in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, Idaho, on Monday, Dec. 22. Kickoff is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Utah State is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -115. Washington State, meanwhile, enters as a +1.5 underdog and is -105 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here’s my Washington State vs. Utah State prediction and college football picks for Monday, December 22.
Washington State vs Utah State Prediction
- Washington State vs. Utah State Pick: Washington State +1.5 (Play to PK)
My Utah State vs. Washington State best bet is on the Cougars to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Washington State vs Utah State Odds
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
- Washington State vs Utah State Spread: Utah State -1.5, Washington State +1.5
- Washington State vs Utah State Over/Under: 49.5 Points
- Washington State vs Utah State Moneyline: Washington State -105, Utah State -115
Washington State vs Utah State Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Preview
Washington State Cougars Betting Preview: Plenty of Coaching Turnover
Just one year after two of the program’s biggest resets — one that included a conference abandoning them and one that included a full coaching turnover — Washington State is in for another reset.
Head coach Jimmy Rogers took the Iowa State job and won’t coach in this bowl game.
His staff will be joining him, but defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit will remain in place as the interim head coach, and offensive coordinator Danny Freund will stick around to call the plays here.
Since making the change from quarterback Jaxon Potter to Zevi Eckhaus (who was forecasted to be the preseason QB1), Washington State has been a much more competitive football team.
Interestingly, that competitive side comes from Bobbit’s defense.
The Cougars played the ultimate don’t-get-beat-over-the-top style, ranking inside the top 10 nationally in explosive play rate but 108th in Success Rate.
It forces teams to remain perfect, and that approach worked. They allowed a quality drive on just 36% of possessions (28th) despite having played offenses like Ole Miss and Virginia.
A team hasn’t scored 28 on this unit since late September, and so long as the offense hit that mark, Washington State remained competitive.
The Cougs’ four losses after the first bye week were all by one score, and to two playoff teams (Ole Miss, James Madison), the ACC runner-up (Virginia) and…checks notes…2-10 Oregon State. All four also came on the road.
Post-September Washington State was fairly easy to discern.
It hung around with talented opponents on the road and caused late-game stress. Home opponents were much easier (Toledo, Louisiana Tech, Oregon State again), and Wazzu held them in check.
This is the final game for Eckhaus, who's a redshirt senior. At 6-foot and about 200 pounds, there’s probably not a strong NFL future here, so he will almost certainly play.
Second-leading receiver Tony Freeman is expected to enter the transfer portal but will play in this game despite the coaching departures.
Utah State Aggies Betting Preview: Late-Season Push
One might be inclined to believe that Utah State’s 2-2 finish to the season fits in line with its perfectly average 6-6 overall record. But the second bye week improved the Aggies for a late-season push that featured some intriguing games.
Those two wins were decisive ones over Nevada and Fresno State. The two losses were a double-overtime thriller to 10-win UNLV and a one-point loss to Mountain West champion Boise State (a game Utah State really should have won).
Utah State played better over the last month of the season than it had previously.
Unfortunately for Utah State, all-conference receiver Braden Pegan won’t play after hitting the transfer portal, vacating nearly 1,000 receiving yards.
Throughout the year, Utah State moved the ball quite well on a down-to-down basis. Grad transfer Bryson Barnes didn’t throw many interceptions, and the Aggies finished the regular season 40th in EPA Per Play.
But inopportune negatives — mostly by way of sacks (Barnes’ 39 taken is third-most in the country) — cost Utah State many drives. It generated a quality drive on 38.4% of possessions, just 89th nationally.
On the other side, the Aggies defense has a problem defending the run. They rank outside the top 100 in yards allowed and 131st in Success Rate (46.6%).
This is a defense that’s on the field quite a bit, too; opponents average 74 plays per game against Utah State, the third-most in the country.
This roster remains almost entirely intact heading to Boise. Tight end Broc Lane (218 receiving yards) is the most notable injury after he sat out the season finale.
Washington State vs Utah State Pick, Betting Analysis
If you got in at open for this total, you’re sitting in a good spot. That total opened at 57.5 points and is all the way down to 52.5 points, while Utah State flipped from a brief +1.5 underdog to as high as a -3.5 favorite.
With a pick rate under 40% and an expected win rate over better than 50%, Utah State is an excellent bowl confidence pool pick to differentiate your entry.
But you’re here for a betting pick, and that pick isn’t on Utah State.
This year, Washington State has taken care of business against teams it’s better than. Since both rosters are largely intact, we can look to year-end power ratings for guidance. Those power ratings (using several industry ratings aggregated) favor Washington State by 2.5 points on a neutral field.
Utah State’s offense, especially without Pegan, isn’t enough to outmatch Washington State’s defense — one that matched up with Ole Miss and Virginia on a play-to-play basis.
Rogers’ departure would be more of a reason for concern if both coordinators weren’t sticking around to coach this game. Those coordinators staying should help keep players comfortable and in place.
The new staff is also secured already, with Missouri offensive coordinator Kirby Moore coming to town. Moore is working on his own to assemble the new staff and begin scouting the transfer portal while the incumbent staff works toward the bowl game.
I’m playing against an overreaction to Rogers' departure. This is, more or less, the same Washington State team that laid a field goal against Toledo — a team that would be favored over Utah State — in Week 14.
Pick: Washington State +1.5 (Play to PK)
