Saturday's Week 1 college football slate features plenty of FBS vs. FCS matchups that may not get the coverage they deserve.
With that said, I decided to dive into three of those matchups on Saturday: Nicholls vs. Kansas State, Utah Tech vs. BYU and Portland State vs. San Diego State.
Let's take a look at my Week 1 college football picks and FBS vs. FCS predictions for Saturday, September 5.
Nicholls vs Kansas State Pick
| Nicholls Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+41.5 -110 | 55.5 -102o / -120u | N/A |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-41.5 -110 | 55.5 -102o / -120u | N/A |
Nicholls did everything you'd expect when facing an overmatched opponent in the opener, but there were some concerns with the offense last week against Mississippi Valley State.
The Colonels didn't register a rushing attempt longer than 19 yards, and about half their passing yards came on two plays.
Nicholls scored 37 points in the first half but was actually outscored in the second half. Outside of the first two drives of the game, the Colonels had to work hard to put points on the board.
I expect the offensive output to be low here on the road against Kansas State.
The Wildcats will be juiced up and ready to go for the season opener in their first game under new head coach Collin Klein.
The former K-State QB was an offensive coordinator here for two seasons, and Avery Johnson played the best football of his entire college career under Klein’s watch.
I look for this team to have a great deal of offensive success today and would consider laying the number with the Wildcats, who will have significant advantages in the skill positions and in line play.
Pick: Kansas State -41.5 (Lean)
Utah Tech vs BYU Pick
| Utah Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+51.5 -110 | 61.5 -105o / -115u | +8000 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-51.5 -110 | 61.5 -105o / -115u | N/A |
This game is going to be absurdly ugly. BYU played Portland State in a similar situation last season, and it resulted in a 69-0 Cougars win.
The box score was indeed as lopsided as the final, with BYU surpassing 600 yards of total offense, while Portland State had just 51 total yards and three first downs.
The Cougars will try to use this as a roster game after the first half, where everyone on the roster gets to play.
I look for a very fast start for the Cougars, who should run the ball very effectively while scoring on every possession in the opening half. The defense will also be very stout against a struggling Utah Tech offense that will struggle to score.
The Trailblazers were just shut out at home by Montana State, 54-0, last week, and the offense really struggled early.
Utah Tech experienced weak offensive line play and ran the ball for just 58 yards on 26 attempts.
The Trailblazers had a little success against Montana State backups and third-string defenders, but the talent disparity between these two opponents is monumental. Utah Tech will find itself in a similar situation as BYU’s FCS opponent last year.
This is going to be extremely ugly. I'd consider laying the number with BYU in the first half, or potentially the first half over 34.5.
Pick: BYU 1H -29.5 (Lean) · 1H Over 34.5 (Lean)
Portland State vs San Diego State Pick
| Portland State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+39.5 -110 | 62.5 -105o / -115u | N/A |
| San Diego St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-39.5 -110 | 62.5 -105o / -115u | N/A |
Portland State showed a massive amount of fight in its opener against UC Davis, which was regarded as a top-three team in the Big Sky this season.
The Vikings were probably a little stunned themselves after racing out to a 21-0 lead before reality set in during the second half.
We saw a little pace from the offense. The ground game generated some explosiveness, and the quarterback play from Tyrese Smith was leaps and bounds beyond what Portland State had last year.
This offense is very competent and will move the football here against San Diego State.
The Aztecs are going to have a much more dynamic offense this season with Jayden Denegal back at quarterback and fully healthy after offseason recovery.
Denegal was hurt in the season opener last year and played through it, but the shoulder injury lingered, which really affected his play.
Head coach Sean Lewis changed everything about how he's wired as a coach and leaned on a slower-paced offense paired with a strong defense. SDSU found success with that formula.
That should revert back this year. The defense loses all of last year’s star power, so the offense should get back to playing fast and furious.
I think we have a decent pairing here for points, and I'll look to bet this game over the posted total.
Pick: Over 62.5 (Lean)
