Welcome to our weekly Havoc Rankings, where the volatility of offenses and defenses is graded for potential wagering.
The talk of the Power 4 teams has been focused on Indiana's excellence in both Havoc and Havoc allowed. From a Group of 5 perspective, Louisiana Tech continues to be the most chaotic defense, while independent UConn has been the safest offense to trust.
Havoc is the collection of stats that can derail offensive momentum on the defensive side of the ball. The summation includes tackles for loss, pass breakups, forced fumbles, interceptions and sacks.
Havoc allowed, meanwhile, is a stat used to quantify an offense's ability to avoid chaos that creates a negative play. Offenses that are elite in Havoc allowed have a low number of fumbles, interceptions and tackles for loss.
Let's take a look at our Week 10 college football picks for Virginia vs. Cal and Week 9 Havoc Rankings for the upcoming week.
College Football Pick, Havoc Rankings for Week 10
Virginia vs Cal Odds, Pick
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
| California Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
Defensive Havoc: Virginia 41st · Cal 62nd
Havoc Allowed: Virginia 29th · Cal 98th
No college football fans had Virginia contending for the College Football Playoff on their 2025 season bingo cards.
With a single loss on the season, the Cavaliers are now in contention for an ACC Championship game appearance. The Wahoos are undefeated through half of the conference schedule after being the centerpiece of a fade in last week’s early bet piece.
Virginia survived another nail-biter with an overtime victory over North Carolina, as the game came down to a single inch.
Regression is sure to come for Virginia, but there are Havoc advantages on both sides of the ball against California.
The Cavaliers defense sits at 41st in the latest Havoc Rankings. That's trouble for a Cal offense that sits outside the top 90 in Havoc allowed.
UVA head coach Tony Elliott fields a defense that ranks top-10 in passes defensed, a metric that combines pass breakups and interceptions. Virginia's top-35 pass rush should put pressure on Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, where the freshman has struggled with a 6.3% turnover-worthy play.
Virginia holds the advantage on the offensive side as well, with a top-30 Havoc allowed rank compared to a Cal defense that sits outside the top 60 in Havoc. Cal ranks 90th in tackles for loss and has forced just four fumbles the entire season.
There are rush advantages for Virginia at the line of scrimmage, as the Hoos boast a top-25 Stuff Rate against a Cal defense ranked 134th in FBS.
Regression may keep the market off Virginia with long travel, as our Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for the Cavaliers to be favored by 6. Look for Havoc to play a major role on both sides of the ball in favor of Virginia.
Pick: Virginia -4.5 or Better
