I've circled four Noon spots for Week 11, all underdogs.
I'll be on Temple against Army, on Mississippi State hosting Georgia, Boston College hosting SMU, and Penn State hosting the impossible-to-beat Indiana Hoosiers.
Read on for my Week 11 NCAAF picks, and check out all of my Saturday spots here:
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Temple +7 |
  | 12 p.m. | Mississippi State +7.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Boston College +11.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Penn State +14.5 |
Temple +7 at Army
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
This looks like a nice spot to buy low on Temple after the Owls got blown out at home last week against East Carolina.
Quarterback Evan Simon had his first poor game of the season and really struggled with the conditions, which shouldn't be an issue this week.
The Temple defense got absolutely cooked by the ECU aerial attack, in part because the secondary had to play most of the game without three starters.
They could return this week, but that's certainly not as big a concern against Army's triple-option offense.
It's also possible that Army potentially comes out a little flat after an emotional last-second win at Air Force last week.
The Black Knights certainly benefited from some good fortune in that game. Air Force turned it over three times (twice in the red zone) and missed a field goal in a last-second three-point loss.
I expect a bounce-back performance from Simon, who has 21 touchdowns to just one interception on the season. He will face an Army defense that can't generate pressure (119th) and ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in dropback Success Rate.
The Owls should also have more success than usual on early downs to stay ahead of the chains with a rushing attack that ranks in the top 20 in yards before contact, going up against a defense that ranks among the 10 worst in the country in that department.
Additionally, Temple should benefit from having already played a service academy in Navy earlier this season. The Owls led that game by seven with under a minute to go and lost due to a missed call on Navy's game-winning two-point conversion.
That experience will undoubtedly help against a much less potent Army offense.
The defensive injuries are certainly still a concern for the Owls (as is potential turnover regression for a team that sits at +11 on the season), but I'm closer to 5 on this number, so I'll make Army beat me by more than a touchdown.
I fully expect K.C. Keeler (one of the nation's most underrated coaches) to have his guys ready to go after last week's debacle, especially in what potentially sets up as the best remaining chance for the Owls to clinch bowl eligibility, which would be massive for a program that hasn't won more than three games since 2019.
Pick: Temple +7 or Better
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Mississippi State +7.5 vs. Georgia
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
The market doesn't like this one, with Georgia taking money as the week progresses, but I really just wanted over a touchdown in the battle of the Bulldogs.
I do believe Mississippi State can keep this close, but as usual, I'll look to come in on Georgia live if Kirby Smart's bunch falls behind early. That has certainly been the case in almost every SEC game that Georgia has played this season.
After two wins to open the season over lowly Marshall and Austin Peay, UGA has faced six SEC foes that have outscored the Dawgs, 52-31, in the first quarter.
And if you remove the Kentucky game, Georgia has trailed at the end of the first quarter in each of its other five league games by a cumulative score of 52-17.
Almost every Georgia SEC game has followed the same script. It falls behind early, then Kirby does his thing as the best in-game adjuster in the sport, which helps lead his team to a come-from-behind victory.
To wit, Georgia has outscored those six opponents, 48-23, in the fourth quarter and overtime — almost a complete 180 to its first quarter differential.
I would be remiss if I didn't mention some of the calls Georgia has benefited from in SEC play.
Auburn should've led, 17-0, if not for a botched touchdown call followed by several other bogus penalties on the Tigers, which led to the head official getting indefinitely suspended.
We saw the same thing last week against Florida with a pair of game-changing calls breaking Georgia's way. It easily could've lost both of those games in addition to the overtime victory over Tennessee after the Vols missed the game-winning field goal attempt at the end of regulation. They were also on the ropes against Ole Miss until a late flurry.
This is just not your older brother's elite Georgia team, especially on defense.
Look no further than that aforementioned matchup with Tennessee. Historically, Josh Heupel's offenses get completely stuffed into a locker by Smart. Well, not this year, and Mississippi State runs a similar scheme under Jeff Lebby.
Georgia's pass rush is almost nonexistent, ranking outside the top 100 in both Pressure Rate and Sack EPA. I never thought I'd see a Georgia defense that ranks third-worst in the country in Sack Rate — ahead of only Air Force and Georgia Southern.
That will be a welcome relief for a Mississippi State offensive line that can really struggle in pass protection.
Mississippi State comes into this game with five wins, but it could easily have two or three more.
Even with a top-15 strength of schedule, the Bulldogs have been highly competitive against every opponent except for a trip to College Station in a tough situational spot. Still, even that game was just 7-3 late in the third quarter.
They've lost two games in overtime to Tennessee (thanks to a defensive touchdown) and to Texas after holding fourth-quarter leads. Plus, they threw an inexplicable last-minute interception in field-goal range in a two-point loss at Florida.
This is a real SEC team that can play with any team in the league.
Lastly, it's a potentially tricky situational spot for Georgia after an emotional rivalry win over Florida that took all 40 minutes, with a home game against Texas on deck.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State has a shot to clinch bowl eligibility, which would mark a massive step forward for a program that won two games in 2024. The Cowbells should be rocking in StarkVegas.
Until I see otherwise, I'll fade a Georgia team I believe remains overvalued as a favorite and look to back it live, especially against a team that has blown its fair share of leads this season.
Pick: Mississippi State +7.5 or Better
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Boston College +11.5 vs. SMU
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
This is a brutal spot for SMU. After three straight hard-fought games, the Mustangs have to travel up north for an early kick following one of the biggest home wins this century in overtime against Miami.
We already saw this team come out completely flat in a similar spot at Wake Forest after an upset win over Clemson.
I wouldn't be surprised if it comes out a bit lethargic for its sixth game in six weeks, with a much-needed bye on deck to get healthier.
Plus, SMU hasn't looked right for most of the season. In fact, the Mustangs have been outgained on the season despite owning a 6-3 record.
In back-to-back home games against lowly Syracuse (with a since-benched quarterback) and Stanford, SMU got outgained by three yards in total. It has really benefited from a nation-leading +2.4 takeaways per game, which likely isn't sustainable.
Even last week's victory over Miami likely had more to do with the undisciplined play of the Hurricanes, who committed a dead-ball personal foul on 4th-and-8 in the final minutes to keep the Mustangs alive.
I'm not sure quarterback Kevin Jennings is fully healthy, and the run game has been pretty abysmal after the offseason departure of Brashard Smith. While the run defense remains stout, the Mustangs can be attacked through the air.
I also believe Boston College is a bit undervalued in the market, in large part due to health. The Eagles had one of the most injury-ravaged rosters in the entire country over the first half of the season, which led to predictably disastrous results.
However, they have since gotten much healthier, resulting in much better outcomes.
Over the past two weeks, against a pair of potential CFP participants in Notre Dame and Louisville, BC trailed by only one possession in the fourth quarter.
At 1-8, there's always risk BC checks out, but I didn't see that last week after a tough loss vs. Louisville that ended its bowl hopes.
And I certainly don't expect that this week in the Red Bandana game — one of my favorite recent college football traditions. RIP to the legendary Welles Crowther.
Pick: Boston College +10.5 or Better
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Penn State +14.5 vs. Indiana
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
Yes, I'm fading Curt Cignetti for a second time this season. You might call me an idiot for doing so, and you'd be correct.
However, in 20-plus years of betting, I've never been afraid to back bad teams or fade good ones, so I'm certainly not going to start now.
This is essentially a numbers play, since I can't get over 13 even after adjusting Indiana up (again) and the Nittany Lions down (again) following last week's results.
Plus, we literally just saw Ohio State close as a 17-point favorite at home against Penn State. There are at least seven points in the home-field advantage swing from Columbus to Happy Valley, which would imply the Buckeyes would have closed around a 10-point road favorite last week.
Now, Indiana is laying over two touchdowns? I can't get there.
While I do have Indiana rated second-best in the country (by more than a field goal), I still project the Hoosiers as more than a field-goal underdog on a neutral field against Ohio State.
For what it's worth, that's in line with the lookahead spread for the potential Big Ten Championship matchup between those two teams, with Ohio State recently opening as a 3.5-point favorite.
Additionally, Indiana comes into this matchup a bit beat up. It will likely be without stud left guard Drew Evans, and future NFL wide receiver Elijah Sarratt may have to sit out with a hamstring issue.
I do expect star linebacker Aiden Fisher to suit up, but there's a chance he can't go as well.
It's hard to have much faith in Penn State at the moment, but this game essentially becomes its Super Bowl in what has become a lost season. I still saw at least a fight from the Nittany Lions last week in the Shoe.
Plus, I did think new quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer improved a bit in terms of pocket presence. Has any freshman quarterback ever started off their collegiate career with a worse set of circumstances in a pair of road starts against Iowa and Ohio State?
It doesn't get much easier this week against the swarming Hoosiers' defense, but it's fair to assume Grunk will continue to improve with more reps and should at least be a bit more comfortable at home.
Unlike Maryland last week, Penn State also has some semblance of a rushing attack, which is crucial for a large underdog against a superior opponent.
The defense also still has an abundance of talent, even if it hasn't lived up to expectations (is Tony Rojas that important?).
Maybe Cignetti runs this up late again, and perhaps they want to pad Mendoza's stats for the Hesiman at all costs. It's certainly possible I'm still underestimating the Hoosiers, but I'm going to trust my numbers and the spot.
It also wouldn't hurt to get a little bit of turnover regression for the Hoosiers, who currently lead the country in turnover margin per game.
Pick: Penn State +14.5 or Better
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