College Football Picks: Our Favorite Chalk Talk Bets, Including Northwestern vs. Miami (OH) & Tennessee vs. Florida
Oisin Keniry/Getty Images. Pictured: The Northwestern Wildcats.
- We see plenty of betting value on favorites in college football Week 4.
- Collin Wilson and Stuckey like two specific favorites on Saturday: Tennessee in a game against Florida and Northwestern over Miami (Ohio).
- Check out both of our favorite college football favorites for Saturday's games below.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided this year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we cover weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
For the second time in three weeks, we fortunately swept both favorites last Saturday. Collin had a no-sweat winner with Georgia, while I had to shed blood, sweat and tears over seven hours to get Iowa to the window.
The only loss of the season remains Collin laying 17.5-points with Graham Mertz and Wisconsin, which I won't let him live down.
For Week 4, we have a pair of home favorites each laying between seven and 14 points.
YTD: 5-1 +3.9 units
Wilson: Tennessee -10.5
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
After losing to Florida last year, Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel should exact revenge over a reeling Gators team that barely pulled out a win over South Florida last weekend.
Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson has really struggled to throw the ball this season. Through three games, he's yet to throw a touchdown pass and has recorded six turnover-worthy plays with four ending in interceptions.
The Florida offense has a low ceiling and is borderline one-dimensional without a real passing attack, which will make it tough to keep up with the high-flying, potent Vols offense.
Florida's strength is running the ball, which Richardson can also do as well as any quarterback in the country. However, that plays right into the hands of Tennessee, which has excelled at defending opposing ground games this year.
It's a defense that showed potential last year but just couldn't catch a break on third downs or in the red zone. Both tend to normalize over time.
Led by quarterback Hendon Hooker, the offense ranks 20th in Success Rate and possesses one of the nation's highest average points per scoring opportunity. On 22 drives beyond the 40-yard line, Tennessee has averaged an excellent 5.7 points.
By the end of the season, Tennessee will likely rate as the fastest team in the nation, which could cause all types of problems for a Florida defensive front that lacks adequate depth.
After suffering losses to Florida in 16 of the past 17 meetings since 2005, Heupel will finally get one for the Tennessee fans, who should be out in full force for this one.
Stuckey: Northwestern -7
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
Miami (Ohio) will finish up its brutal nonconference stretch with a trip to Northwestern, which should come out with its hair on fire after dropping back-to-back home games as favorites against Duke and FCS Southern Illinois.
The Wildcats have a few injuries in the secondary, but they should still have plenty of capable defensive backs who can contain Miami's passing attack. The RedHawks lost star quarterback Brett Gabbert, who was the engine that drove the offense.
The RedHawks, who will also likely be without their starting left tackle once again, are beat up after nonconference road bouts against Kentucky and most recently Cincinnati. With their conference opener looming next week, they may shift their focus to staying healthy if this one gets away.
I think you’re getting Northwestern cheap here, especially if you can find a 7 (up to -115) leading up to kick. If not, I'd still bet this at -7.5.
This looks like a prime buy-low opportunity on Pat's Cats, who should have too much talent here.
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