Week 4 Heisman Trophy Odds & Power Rankings: Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel the Top Longshot Bet?
Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
Let conference play begin!
The third week of the college football season has come and gone, with Week 3 being significantly quieter from a national headline perspective. Most Power Five teams finished up their preseason schedule with a cupcake in preparation for the beginning of whatever gauntlet awaits in conference play.
With that said, one of the last opportunities to snag Heisman futures with elite value will be this week leading up to Saturday. There are several contenders in the conversation, and the price on a number them is still ripe for the taking.
5.
Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel (+3300)
Similar to last week, Gabriel makes the list at the No. 5 spot based on value. Oklahoma walked into Lincoln and whipped the Cornhuskers for 60 straight minutes up and down the field.
Gabriel threw for 230 yards and two touchdowns while adding a 61-yard touchdown via his legs as well. Seven touchdowns and no interceptions is a solid start to the season for the Sooners' quarterback.
If you're into longshots with great odds, this is my favorite pick. Gabriel sits at +3300 at BetRivers, but he's as short as +1600 on FanDuel and Caesars.
Now, Oklahoma prepares for Kansas State. The Sooners have had issues with the Wildcats in the past, so this is a great chance for Gabriel to solidify his push for validity in the conversation.
4.
Alabama QB Bryce Young (+500)
Alabama did what Alabama does to teams like Louisiana Monroe this past weekend in its 63–7 victory. With that said, the road back to New York for Young carries on.
However, there's been a bit of a hiccup in the last two years in terms of statistical production for Young. Two more interceptions against ULM won't help his case in the grand scheme of things when it comes to repeating as Heisman winner.
The price for Young is significantly lower than I would like it to be based on his current stat sheet and the schedule in which he has played. With just 644 yards through the air thus far, there are far prettier quarterback lines from other Heisman hopefuls than what Young has accumulated thus far.
This isn't to say that the hopes and dreams of a repeat are dead. But for now, there's far greater value elsewhere. That, of course, can change this weekend as Alabama kicks off SEC play against Vanderbilt.
3.
Georgia QB Stetson Bennett (+1200)
I'm still a believer in this value. At +1200, Bennett is certainly someone to keep an eye on for the immediate future.
This Georgia team is a wagon, and as a result, every talking head in America will be gabbing about the Bulldogs for the rest of the season. That certainly pans well for an award driven by narrative.
Following a 48–7 victory over South Carolina on Saturday, Bennett's odds dropped just a couple hundred from last week.
I would love for Bennett to be racking up more touchdown passes than the five he has right now through three games. However, he ranks 11th in the country with 952 passing yards, and the Georgia offense has been rolling in each game this season.
As SEC conference play looms, the on-field performance from Bennett and the Bulldog offense is inspiring enough for me to see a future in which the quarterback earns himself an invite to New York on the second weekend in December.
And if that is the case, I would be remiss to not take advantage of the +1400 value he's still sitting at.
2.
Ohio State QB CJ Stroud (+275)
The odds-on favorite for the Heisman trophy had himself an afternoon as Ohio State rolled over Toledo, 77–21, Saturday.
Stroud threw for as many touchdowns as he had incompletions against the Rockets. Stroud connected with a pass-catcher for a touchdown five times. The 11 touchdowns Stroud has thrown this season are tied for the national lead. Pairing those with zero interceptions, he owns the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in all of college football.
Stroud opens Big Ten play against Wisconsin this weekend, which ranks 19th in passing yards allowed per game. This will be his first test since the season opener, and luckily for him, his weapons rival those of anyone in the country.
I'm not thrilled with the value right now, but at this point, I'm beginning to believe you won't see them improve for the rest of the season. In all likelihood, there will only be two weeks left of +200 odds or better for Stroud.
1.
USC QB Caleb Williams (+350)
Last week, these odds were sitting right around +600. Williams' odds are dropping very quickly, and this might be your last chance to grab him at anything near the +300 mark.
Based on how things are shaking out so far, it's a two-horse race between Stroud and Williams for the Heisman.
Williams has been lighting it up in Lincoln Riley's offense, and the Trojans will be faced with a little resistance for the rest of the season. The playmakers are there and the offense is very stat-friendly.
USC faces Oregon State this weekend, which is a favorable matchup for the Trojans through the air. Right now, the biggest hurdle Williams will have to overcome this season is his offensive line. He's been sacked seven times in three games, which is not ideal.
But the numbers are showing no signs of slowing down, and history has been friendly to quarterbacks in Riley's offense in the past. Great value remains.
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