Saturday's Week 7 college football slate features plenty of under-the-radar matchups that may not get the coverage they deserve.
With that said, I decided to dive into three of those matchups on Saturday: Nevada vs. North Dakota State, Kent State vs. USF and San Jose State vs. UTEP.
Let's take a look at my Week 7 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday, Oct. 17.
Nevada vs North Dakota State Pick
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -122 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| North Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 +100 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -720 |
North Dakota State suffered its first loss of the season last week against UNLV, and the injury report continues to grow. The Bison have 10 players ruled out for this game or longer.
NDSU struggled badly against the UNLV defense, throwing for just 124 yards with quarterback Nathan Hayes throwing three interceptions.
Hayes has been battling a foot injury and hasn't looked great over the last couple of weeks, as the rigors of a 12-game FBS schedule may start finally catching up with NDSU.
Nevada is much better than its 2-3 record suggests, as the Wolf Pack squandered several chances to score points against Montana State, Middle Tennessee State and Air Force, which all resulted in losses.
Last week against UTEP, the ground game flourished behind the emergence of running back Herschel Turner, who ran for 192 yards and a touchdown.
This offense is explosive enough to move the ball against NDSU, something Wyoming and Sacramento State couldn't say.
The Nevada defense has performed well this season while limiting explosive plays and holding up against the run. This unit will create problems for the NDSU offense.
I like the Bison to stay under their team total of 28.5, as this isn't the same explosive offense we've seen over the last 15 years at the FCS level.
The offensive line play has been weaker than at any point over the last 10 years, and the ground game has averaged just 4.2 yards per carry.
Running back DJ Scott is banged up and may not participate in this game, while Hayes is also dealing with a nagging foot injury that inhibited his ability during the UNLV game.
NDSU started 5-0 this season. The team was clearly ready for the transition to FBS football, but now comes the true test of internal fortitude.
The middle of the schedule is daunting with this game, a trip to New Mexico looming, and a trip to Hawaii still on the docket.
The roster makeup of this team could cause for a decline in performance down the stretch, and I think we see that here.
Hayes isn't healthy, the running back isn't fully healthy, and there are multiple injuries on defense where depth pieces will be out.
I think Nevada keeps this game close and the game will turn into a slow-burning slog in which NDSU fails to exceed its team total.
Pick: North Dakota State Team Total Under 28.5
Kent State vs USF Pick
| Kent State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 45.5 -104o / -118u | +980 |
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 45.5 -104o / -118u | -2000 |
South Florida figures to be steamed after blowing back-to-back conference games against Temple and UTSA and in the span of five days.
First-year head coach Brian Hartline has done some good things with USF, but there are some decisions he surely would like to have back.
This offense has struggled at times against weaker competition (FIU and Bowling Green) but has also shown flashes of brilliance in other matchups.
This week is about figuring out the offensive attack in an effort to get back into the American Conference race. With games against East Carolina, Memphis and FAU remaining on the schedule, the offensive status quo won't be good enough.
I anticipate that we'll see more pace, urgency and better execution out of the offense this week against Kent State, which has underperformed in the last two weeks.
Kent has one of the worst offenses at the FBS level, ranking 134th nationally in Success Eate and 122nd in Havoc allowed.
South Florida’s defensive front has registered 41 tackles for loss this season with 11 sacks and figures to dial up the pressure against the Golden Flashes in a rare midseason nonconference home game for the Bulls.
Kent State hasn't executed well enough in early-down situations, and the run game has been bad, averaging just 109 yards per game and 3.21 yards per carry this season.
Quarterback Dru DeShields has completed just 57% of his passes with four touchdown passes. Some of the magic we saw last season just hasn't come to fruition in 2026.
South Florida has superior talent and should win this game convincingly. The defensive line will find ways to create negative plays in the backfield, and I expect some short fields and sudden-change deep shots out of the USF offense.
I'm looking to back USF -20.5.
Pick: USF -20.5
San Jose State vs UTEP Pick
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -118 | 46.5 -106o / -114u | -260 |
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -104 | 46.5 -106o / -114u | +210 |
San Jose State is experiencing concerning injuries on offense, as star running back Jabari Bates is confirmed out for this matchup and starting quarterback Luke Weaver is questionable.
The Spartans blew a major opportunity last week at home against Wyoming and now hit the road to face a desperate UTEP team that needs a win after facing a brutal schedule over the first half of the season.
San Jose State has been significantly less explosive this season. The Spartans don't have a downfield passing attack and have also incorporated more of the run game into their offensive game plan.
The offense has played slower and has found itself in lower-scoring, defensive battles in each of the last three weeks.
Every game this season has gone under the posted total outside of the opener against USC, and the defense has held serve against opposing offenses.
This week figures to be one where the offense fails to get it going, in part due to the aforementioned injuries.
UTEP is a desperate program that has been playing hard but has failed to see much productivity.
The Miners are averaging just nine points per game against FBS competition this season, and poor situational execution is the primary driver in their lack of success.
UTEP has converted just 23% of third-down attempts, has one of the worst Offensive Success Rates in the country (135th), and can't find ways to block appropriately up front.
The activity in the backfield is stunning- 25 sacks and 57 tackles for loss surrendered makes it impossible for this offense to put drives together and regularly find the red zone.
The UTEP offense will be up against it again in this matchup with the Spartans, who have a much tougher defense than expected.
Both of these teams have also truncated their respective operating tempos down significantly, as UTEP has run 56 plays or less in five of its six games, while San Jose State has run 62 and 66 plays over its last two games.
I think the Miners will show up defensively in what figures to be a slow-burning slog. I like the under in this matchup, and San Jose State figures to stay under its team total, which comes in at 26.5.
Pick: Under 46.5 · San Jose State Team Total Under 26.5
