The West Virginia Mountaineers take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in Tempe, Arizona. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on TNT.
Arizona State is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. West Virginia, meanwhile, enters as a +11.5 underdog and is +325 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 total points.
Here’s my West Virginia vs. Arizona State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
West Virginia vs Arizona State Prediction
- West Virginia vs. Arizona State Pick: Under 48.5
My Arizona State vs. West Virginia best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
West Virginia vs Arizona State Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
- West Virginia vs Arizona State point spread: Arizona State -11.5, West Virginia +11.5
- West Virginia vs Arizona State over/under: 47.5 Points
- West Virginia vs Arizona State moneyline: West Virginia +325, Arizona State -425
West Virginia vs Arizona State College Football Betting Preview
West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Preview: WVU Looking to Grind It Out
West Virginia enters this game with a clear identity: a defense that loads the box, wins early downs and forces opponents into uncomfortable passing situations. The numbers paint the picture. The Mountaineers rank:
- 48th in Success Rate allowed
- 35th in third-down defense
- 46th in Defensive Havoc
This is not an elite defense, but it's absolutely one that can shut down one-dimensional attacks. And that’s exactly what Jeff Sims tends to create.
Sims has been in college football for six years, and it's the same story for six years. Electric runner, decent passer.
His inability to stretch the field compresses ASU’s spacing and will allow WVU to stack the box without fear. That’s a nightmare against this Mountaineer front.
WVU is quietly excellent against the run, ranking 25th in Rushing Success Rate allowed. Expect Sims to keep the ball on the ground more than throwing and for that clock to chew as well.
I'm also interested in seeing Arizona State's red-zone defense against a Sims-led attack.
On offense, look for a lot of rushes with a few play-action passes thrown in. The Mountaineers rank 10th in rush rate so far this season, which actually sets up a nice play-action game.
However, they play at a snail's pace, ranking 128th in plays per minute this season. Expect a lot of grind-it-out football.
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview: Rushing Yards Are Key
This game will revolve around Sims' legs. And he showed them off in his first full start this season.
Despite not playing in a triple-option offense, he still had more rushing attempts, yards and touchdowns than he did passing. He even included an 88-yard run for good measure.
I'm sure the Sun Devils won't complain about a win with their backup quarterback starting, but overall, it's a bit concerning. West Virginia and Iowa State have nearly identical ranked defenses (114th and 115th, respectively, as graded by PFF).
Yet, Iowa State has been particularly weak against the rush, ranking 110th in PFF's rush defense grade. However, West Virginia ranks 87th and will have a full week of tape (which may be more important).
On defense, the Sun Devils may give up some points to a stagnant West Virginia offense. They rank just 80th in Success Rate allowed and 81st in Points Per Opportunity allowed.
However, one area in which they excel is causing disruption, ranking 13th in Havoc. Look for ASU to try to play in the backfield a ton.
West Virginia vs Arizona State Pick, Betting Analysis
West Virginia’s biggest defensive strength — stopping the run and eliminating explosive rushing plays — now aligns perfectly with ASU’s new offensive identity.
The Sun Devils will lean heavily on Sims’ legs, but WVU has both the scheme and the personnel to bottle that up. If they can force Sims to play from behind the sticks, the game will tilt dramatically.
Meanwhile, WVU’s offense doesn’t need to be elite — just steady. As long as the defense can contain Sims on the ground, it should be able to keep it close.
The 'Neers match up very similarly to Iowa State, which lost by just five. The question will be, can their offense score enough points to keep up? Or will there even be enough possessions for it to matter?
This is going to be a gross game. Two teams with decent defenses and run-first offenses will be looking for a low-scoring affair.
While I think West Virginia is capable of moving the ball against Arizona State, I don't see it scoring a lot of points. The Sun Devils have a disruptive defense and rank 38th in defensive hard stops.
I don't see either team getting a ton of momentum in this one. Look for lots and lots of stops.
Pick: Under 48.5
West Virginia vs Arizona State Betting Trends
