Wisconsin vs Minnesota Prediction, Pick: Total Too High
Jason Mowry/Getty Images. Pictured: Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis.
Wisconsin vs Minnesota Odds
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
What a way to close out a Big Ten season!
The Minnesota Golden Gophers host the Wisconsin Badgers to close regular-season play.
With the Big Ten West already clinched by Iowa, it's safe to say that neither of these teams met their goals, but both look to close out the season on a high note.
Wisconsin enters this game with a 6-5 record and is coming off a win over Nebraska at home. It's 4-6-1 against the spread and has gone under in seven games.
Minnesota comes into this game with a 5-6 record amid a three-game losing streak. The Golden Gophers are 3-8 against the spread and have gone under in six games.
It will be a cold day in Minnesota, but the weather should be generally conducive to scoring. Temperatures will range from 26 to 30 degrees with consistent crosswinds that range from 4.8 to 5.9 miles per hour.
With these conditions, it's unlikely that the weather will impact the game.
Read on for our Wisconsin vs Minnesota Prediction, Pick.
Luke Fickell's debut season isn't going to plan, but the Badgers are bowl-eligible and have a chance to finish second in the Big Ten West.
Despite their fast pace of play, Wisconsin is averaging 22.4 points per game and 5.2 yards per play. They have a 43% Success Rate and score 3.88 Points per Opportunity. They allow Havoc on 16% of plays.
Wisconsin ranks 32nd in passing play rate at 54%. They've averaged 37 pass attempts per game and 212.7 passing yards per game.
Tanner Mordecai missed some time with an injury but has been back under center for the last two games. He's completing 64.7% of his passes for an average of 6.1 yards per attempt. One concerning note is that he's thrown only four touchdowns and has three interceptions.
As a team, Wisconsin has a 38% Pass Success Rate.
Despite shifting to a more pass-heavy approach, Braelon Allen is the engine of the Wisconsin offense. He leads the team with 924 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns. He has 87 more carries than the next leading ball carrier.
Wisconsin has a 50% Rush Success Rate as a team, ranking ninth nationally. The offensive line creates 3.51 Line Yards per attempt while allowing a measly 11.4% Stuff Rate.
As you'd expect from a Luke Fickell program, the defense is playing well. They allow 19.4 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. Opponents have posted a 40% Success Rate while being held to only 2.9 Points per Opportunity.
PJ Fleck will need his Gophers to row the boat fast and pick up a home win to secure bowl eligibility. Sitting a 5-6, Fleck is trending towards his first losing season since 2020.
The Gophers average 20.7 points per game and 4.8 yards per play. They rank 100th in Success Rate at 40% and score just 3.68 Points per Opportunity. On the positive side, their grinding offense has limited the opponent's ability to create Havoc, with just 14% allowed.
Minnesota ranks 118th nationally in pass rate at 41% and attempts 24.4 passes per game for an average of 151.9 yards per game. Athan Kaliakmanis has completed 52.6% of his passes for an average of 6.3 yards per attempt while throwing 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
As a team, Minnesota has a 36% Pass Success Rate while averaging 2.8 passes over 20 yards per game.
The Gophers average 3.9 yards per carry on their 39.1 rush attempts per game. The workload has been split across five running backs and Kaliakmanis, with six players over 35 carries.
The group has been dinged up through the season, with Darius Taylor and Zach Evans missing time.
As a team, Minnesota has a 42% Rush Success Rate, as the offensive line generates 3.12 Line Yards per attempt while allowing a 15.3% Stuff Rate.
Minnesota's best defense is its offensive pace of play and field position, as it ranks 27th in average starting field position.
But once the Gophers defense is on the field, all bets are off. They allow a 43% Success Rate and 4.7 Points per Opportunity, ranking 127th overall.
And while their offense limits Havoc, the Minnesota defense is largely incapable of creating Havoc, with just a 13% rate. It allows 26.8 points per game and 6.0 yards per play.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wisconsin and Minnesota match up statistically:
Wisconsin Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 12 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 60 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 101 | |
| Havoc | 16 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 128 | |
| Quality Drives | 114 | 90 |
Minnesota Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 65 | 63 | |
| Pass Success | 116 | 38 | |
| Havoc | 28 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 84 | 12 | |
| Quality Drives | 69 | 20 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 24 | 103 |
| PFF Coverage | 37 | 57 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 20 | 25 |
| Middle 8 | 59 | 96 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.5 (19) | 30.2 (120) |
| Rush Rate | 48.0% (98) | 61.6% (15) |
Wisconsin vs Minnesota
Betting Pick & Prediction
As of writing, Wisconsin is either a 2- or 2.5-point favorite, with the line trending in favor of the Badgers.
Per the Action Network App, approximately 60% of tickets and 84% of the money is taking the favorite in this matchup.
The total sits at 42.5, and that number is too high.
Despite Wisconsin's pace of play, its ineffective offense will hinder its ability to take advantage of a porous Minnesota defense. At the same time, Minnesota's ability to limit possessions should keep the scoring down.
Play it down to 42.
Pick: Under 42.5
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