Wisconsin vs. USF Betting Odds & Preview: Can You Trust Bulls to Hang With Badgers?

Wisconsin vs. USF Betting Odds & Preview: Can You Trust Bulls to Hang With Badgers? article feature image
Credit:

Kim Klement, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Charlie Strong

Wisconsin at South Florida Betting Odds

  • Spread: Wisconsin -10.5
  • Over/Under: 58.5
  • Date: Friday, Aug. 30
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

All odds above are as of 9 a.m. ET on Friday and via PointsBet.

South Florida has started a 7-0 in each of the last two seasons (with the underlying numbers indicating they shouldn’t have been anywhere near that good), only to see the wheels completely fall off down the stretch as their schedule got tougher.

Last year, the Bulls lost six straight to end the year. And in none of those games did they have a greater than 40% win expectancy, according to S&P+. They got beat bad.

So maybe there’s something about Charlie Strong’s teams starting hot. Maybe.

But I’m willing to bet on this team and program just not being all that good, not that early-season success, which has been unsustainable for those two seasons.

The Badgers have been a pillar of consistency under Paul Chryst in the last four seasons — last year was the first time he didn’t win at least 10 games with the Badgers — and I’m counting on a bounce back in 2019. The offense should be strong on the ground with Jonathan Taylor at running back and another strong offensive line. They’ll punish a porous USF run defense.

Our power ratings put this game at about Wisconsin -17, which is a touchdown off from the market. And that scares me a little bit when we’re so out of line with the market.

But home underdogs are overrated in general, we only give USF 1.5 points for home-field advantage (one of the 25 lowest marks in the nation) and Wisconsin will start a rebound campaign strong against an inferior opponent.