Saturday's Week 11 slate has big games in the ACC, the Big Ten, and the SEC. The Kalshi promo code ACTION55 gives new users a $55 bonus after a $25 deposit, and these college football picks round out our best trades from the live Kalshi board: Duke vs. Miami, USC vs. Indiana, and Texas vs. LSU.
- Miami is an 82% favorite at home against Duke, Indiana is 74% to beat USC, and LSU is 61% to beat Texas at Tiger Stadium.
- Our five picks include three spreads, one total, and one moneyline, and each backs an underdog or the Under.
Here's our full picks table from the best prediction markets, listed in kickoff order.
| 🏈 Game | 🏷️ Pick: Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE vs MIA | DUKE +13.5 (MIA -13.5 NO): No | 50¢ | $200.00 | Trade Now! |
| USC vs IND | USC +7.5 (IND -7.5 NO): No | 48¢ | $208.33 | Trade Now! |
| USC vs IND | Under 49.5 (Over NO): No | 50¢ | $200.00 | Trade Now! |
| TEX vs LSU | TEX +4.5 (LSU -4.5 NO): No | 52¢ | $192.31 | Trade Now! |
| TEX vs LSU | TEX ML: Yes | 39¢ | $256.41 | Trade Now! |
Read our dedicated Kalshi review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms. You can also browse every CFB prediction market promo in one place.
College Football Picks Today: Our Top Kalshi Picks for Week 11
Every pick below is a real trade we'd make on Kalshi, part of our best college football picks for Week 11. Not sure where to trade? Start with the best prediction market apps.
Use Kalshi promo code ACTION55 and Trade $25, Get $55!
These CFB best bets are based on Kalshi prices as they stand now, and prices can move before kickoff.
Duke vs. Miami Prediction
No. 5 Miami (8-1, 6-0 ACC) hosts Duke (7-2, 4-2) at noon ET on ABC. Last week, the Hurricanes lost 31-24 at Notre Dame for their first defeat.
Miami quarterback Darian Mensah, who led Duke to last year's ACC title, now faces his old team. The Hurricanes have the nation's top-scoring offense, and star receiver Malachi Toney is still out after ankle surgery.
| 🏈 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE ML | Yes | 18¢ | $555.56 | Trade Now! |
| MIA ML | Yes | 83¢ | $120.48 | Trade Now! |
| MIA -13.5 | Yes | 51¢ | $196.08 | Trade Now! |
| DUKE +13.5 (MIA -13.5 NO) | No | 50¢ | $200.00 | Trade Now! |
| Over 55.5 | Yes | 49¢ | $204.08 | Trade Now! |
| Under 55.5 (Over NO) | No | 52¢ | $192.31 | Trade Now! |
Best Spread Pick Today: Duke +13.5
| 🏈 Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE +13.5 (MIA -13.5 NO) | No | 50¢ | $200.00 | Trade Now! |
Thirteen and a half points is a big number for a Duke defense that hasn't allowed a touchdown in its last 32 possessions. The Blue Devils forced 16 punts in that stretch and own the ACC's best scoring defense.
Running back Nate Sheppard has 1,189 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns, so Duke can chew clock and keep the margin tight. Miami is also coming off its first loss, and the teams have split their last six meetings.
At a 50¢ average price, a $100 buy works out to roughly 200 shares, and the ticket shows an estimated return of $200.00.
- If Duke wins or loses by 13 or fewer: Est. return of $200.00.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
A return of about 2x on a number priced as a coin flip.
USC vs. Indiana Prediction
Defending national champion Indiana (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) hosts USC (7-2, 4-2) at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. The Hoosiers are 0-4 all-time against the Trojans, who haven't visited Bloomington since 1981.
USC comes in off a 30-18 win over Ohio State on Oct. 31. Indiana hasn't scored more than 20 points in regulation in its last four games. It also hasn't allowed more than 19 in that span.
| 🏈 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC ML | Yes | 26¢ | $384.62 | Trade Now! |
| IND ML | Yes | 75¢ | $133.33 | Trade Now! |
| IND -7.5 | Yes | 53¢ | $188.68 | Trade Now! |
| USC +7.5 (IND -7.5 NO) | No | 48¢ | $208.33 | Trade Now! |
| Over 49.5 | Yes | 51¢ | $196.08 | Trade Now! |
| Under 49.5 (Over NO) | No | 50¢ | $200.00 | Trade Now! |
Best Spread Pick Today: USC +7.5
| 🏈 Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC +7.5 (IND -7.5 NO) | No | 48¢ | $208.33 | Trade Now! |
Indiana is 1-8 against the spread this season, and its offense hasn't had much room to cover a number this big. The Hoosiers are also listed without running back Turbo Richard, which thins a ground game that already has to carry the load.
USC's defense holds opponents to a 35.9% third-down conversion rate, so the Trojans can stay in range of a one-score game late.
At a 48¢ average price, a $100 buy works out to roughly 208 shares, and the ticket shows an estimated return of $208.33.
- If USC wins or loses by seven or fewer: Est. return of $208.33.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
A return of about 2.1x with a full touchdown of cushion.
Best Total Pick Today: Under 49.5
| 🏈 Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 49.5 (Over NO) | No | 50¢ | $200.00 | Trade Now! |
No opponent has scored more than 23 points on Indiana this season, and the Hoosiers hold teams to a 31.6% third-down conversion rate. USC scored just seven in a recent 24-7 loss at Wisconsin.
Indiana's last two wins both went to overtime, and its offense is short a lead back. That points to a slow, low-scoring game.
At a 50¢ average price, a $100 buy works out to roughly 200 shares, and the ticket shows an estimated return of $200.00.
- If the game finishes with 49 or fewer total points: Est. return of $200.00.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
A return of about 2x on a total priced right at even.
Texas vs. LSU Prediction
Texas (7-2) visits LSU (6-3) at Tiger Stadium at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The Longhorns beat Missouri 34-20 last Saturday, while the Tigers lost at home to Alabama for their third defeat.
LSU fell to No. 22 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Its three losses came to Ole Miss, Kentucky (in overtime), and Alabama.
| 🏈 Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEX ML | Yes | 39¢ | $256.41 | Trade Now! |
| LSU ML | Yes | 63¢ | $158.73 | Trade Now! |
| LSU -4.5 | Yes | 49¢ | $204.08 | Trade Now! |
| TEX +4.5 (LSU -4.5 NO) | No | 52¢ | $192.31 | Trade Now! |
| Over 46.5 | Yes | 50¢ | $200.00 | Trade Now! |
| Under 46.5 (Over NO) | No | 51¢ | $196.08 | Trade Now! |
Best Spread Pick Today: Texas +4.5
| ��� Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEX +4.5 (LSU -4.5 NO) | No | 52¢ | $192.31 | Trade Now! |
Texas has won three straight since its loss to Florida, outscoring opponents 99-50 and beating two ranked teams along the way. LSU is 0-3 against the spread against ranked teams this season, and it lost all three as a favorite.
Pass rusher Colin Simmons is expected back at full strength. That gives Texas a better shot at keeping this one close.
At a 52¢ average price, a $100 buy works out to roughly 192 shares, and the ticket shows an estimated return of $192.31.
- If Texas wins or loses by four or fewer: Est. return of $192.31.
- If not, the $100 stake is a total loss.
A return of roughly 1.9x with the points in your pocket.
Best Moneyline Pick Today: Texas
| 🏈 Pick | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade on Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEX ML | Yes | 39¢ | $256.41 | Trade Now! |
The spread is the safer way to back Texas, and the moneyline is the bigger swing on the same read. Texas already beat Ole Miss, one of the three teams that beat LSU.
Running back Raleek Brown has 346 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns during the win streak. That gives quarterback Arch Manning a steady ground game.
At a 39¢ average price, a $100 buy works out to roughly 256 shares, and the ticket shows an estimated return of $256.41.
- If Texas wins outright: Est. return of $256.41.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
A return of about 2.6x, the largest multiple among our five picks.
What's Moving the Market: College Football Picks on Kalshi
Prediction markets and prices can move for many reasons, and Kalshi's own arrows show the biggest shifts in the USC-Indiana game. USC is up 3 points to 26% to win, Indiana is down 3 points to 74%, and the Hoosiers' spread price is marked down 5 points to 52%. We can't say what drove any of those moves.
The Over 49.5 in that game is down 2 points to 51%, and LSU's spread price is down 1 point to 48%. Duke's price briefly climbed above 20% around Nov. 7, when Miami lost at Notre Dame, before settling back near 18%.
Texas vs. LSU is the busiest of the three markets, with just over $1 million in volume. Kalshi's total of 55.5 for Duke vs. Miami sits a point above the 54.5 on sportsbook boards. Compare any of these CFB best bets against the latest CFB odds before you trade.
How to Trade the Best College Football Picks Today on Kalshi
Ready to get in on these college football picks? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading:
- Read a full Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the market page for each game on Kalshi to stay ahead of live order book movements.
- When you're ready, sign up with Kalshi promo code ACTION55, deposit $25, and get a $55 bonus.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Final Thoughts: College Football Picks Today
Saturday's college football picks lean toward the underdog side. We like Duke, USC, and Texas to cover, Texas to win outright, and the Under in the Indiana game.
That wraps our Week 11 picks for Duke vs. Miami, USC vs. Indiana, and Texas vs. LSU. For more games and offers, check the full college football hub and the latest CFB prediction market promos.
Kalshi Promo Code FAQs
What is the Kalshi promo code for today's college football picks?
The current Kalshi promo code is ACTION55. New users who sign up with it can deposit $25 and get a $55 bonus, subject to the terms and conditions.
What are the best college football picks today?
Our five best college football picks are Duke +13.5, USC +7.5, Under 49.5 in USC vs. Indiana, Texas +4.5, and the Texas moneyline.
Who is favored in Duke vs. Miami, USC vs. Indiana, and Texas vs. LSU?
Kalshi has Miami at 82% to beat Duke, Indiana at 74% to beat USC, and LSU at 61% to beat Texas.
How do I use Kalshi promo code ACTION55?
Create an account with ACTION55, make a $25 deposit, and get a $55 bonus, subject to the terms and conditions.
How do Kalshi college football contracts resolve?
Spread and total contracts resolve Yes if the stated condition is met in the final score, and No if it isn't. Moneyline contracts resolve on which team wins. Each share pays $1 when your side wins and nothing when it doesn't.
What does the Est. Return column in the picks table mean?
It shows the estimated return on a $100 trade if the pick wins, including your original stake, based on the listed price. Kalshi fees and your final fill price can shift the number.
What time do these games kick off?
Duke vs. Miami kicks off at noon ET on ABC, USC vs. Indiana at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS, and Texas vs. LSU at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Does this cover every college football game on Saturday?
No. These three games are the ones we're covering, and Kalshi has markets for many more college football games on Saturday.
