Thursday's MLB slate is stacked, and the home run board on Polymarket has plenty to dig into across seven games.
We're breaking down the top 5 home run props for the Nationals vs Rockies, Yankees vs Astros, Blue Jays vs Royals, Mets vs Brewers, and Braves vs Dodgers matchups.
Along the way, we're naming some Editor's Pick for the best home run bets today, plus the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus!
Rockies vs Nationals – Best Home Run Bets Today
Washington (62-71) has won the season series and gets Jake Irvin on the mound, while Colorado (50-81) turns to right-hander Gabriel Hughes, who owns a 6.54 ERA this season.
Hughes' fly-ball tendencies and a Nationals lineup that leads MLB in slugging percentage make this a home run-friendly matchup on paper, and it's a big reason this game opens our mlb home run predictions today rundown.
- Hunter Goodman (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 25¢, implying 25%): Goodman is the highest-priced HR bat on this board, and he's been Colorado's most consistent power threat all season against right-handed pitching like Irvin's.
- Mickey Moniak (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 21¢, implying 21%): Moniak has flashed pull-side power at Nationals Park before, and Irvin has been prone to the long ball in his home starts this year.
- CJ Abrams (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 20¢, implying 20%): Abrams provides thump from the leadoff spot, and Washington's offense has been feasting on a Rockies pitching staff that owns one of the league's highest home ERAs.
- Doylen Lile (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 16¢, implying 16%): Lile has settled into a everyday outfield role for Colorado and offers some sneaky pop against a Nationals staff that's been hittable of late.
- Abimelec Ortiz (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 15¢, implying 15%): Ortiz rounds out the top 5, priced as a modest long shot but one worth a look given how often this Rockies lineup has traded contact for pull-side pop this year.
Every contract on this board is currently only priced on the Over side, so we've left the Under off entirely rather than showing an inactive line.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Hunter Goodman (Editor's Pick)
Goodman sits at the top of the Rockies-Nationals home run board at 25¢, and he's the trade we're making tonight.
He's been Colorado's most reliable source of thump against right-handed starters, and Irvin has struggled to keep the ball in the yard in his last few turns through the rotation.
Priced at 25%, this isn't a moon-shot longshot pick, it's the market's actual favorite in this category, which is exactly why we're comfortable backing it.
Here's how the actual ticket looks: we bought the Over 0.5 side at a 25¢ board price, and a $100 stake moved the average fill to 26¢.
At $100 ÷ 26¢, that works out to roughly 385 shares purchased, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Goodman hits a home run: the shares pay out $1 each, for a total of $385.00 and a profit of $285.00 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's a roughly 3.85x payout multiple on a pick we genuinely like, though no home run prop is ever a sure thing over a single game.
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Astros vs Yankees – Best Home Run Bets Today
New York (75-57) sends Cam Schlittler, who's been one of the American League's stingiest starters this year at a 2.16 ERA, against Houston's (66-67) Hayden Wesneski.
Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch keeps this board lively even with Schlittler on the mound, which is why it's one of the best home run bets today on the whole slate.
- Yordan Alvarez (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 25¢, implying 25%; Under 0.5: 80¢): Alvarez tops this board, and it's not close, he's Houston's most dangerous power bat and has done real damage in this ballpark before.
- Ben Rice (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 22¢, implying 22%; Under 0.5: 98¢): Rice has turned into a legitimate pull-side power threat at home, and Yankee Stadium's dimensions play right into his swing path.
- Trent Grisham (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 19¢, implying 19%; Under 0.5: 98¢): Grisham's fly-ball rate makes him a live longshot against a Wesneski fastball that's been hit hard this season.
- Luis Garcia Jr. (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 18¢, implying 18%): Garcia isn't known primarily for power, but he's shown more thump in recent weeks and gets a bump facing a Yankees bullpen that's had to soak up extra innings lately.
- Christian Walker (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 15¢, implying 15%; Under 0.5: 91¢): Walker rounds out the top 5, a classic all-or-nothing power bat who can run into one against any arm on this staff.
Garcia's contract is only priced on the Over side right now, so we've shown that line without an inactive Under.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Yordan Alvarez (Editor's Pick)
Alvarez is the board's clear favorite at 25¢, and he's the pick we're backing in this game.
He's Houston's most feared bat in the middle of the order, and Yankee Stadium's short porch to right field has historically played well for lefty pull power like his.
Schlittler has been excellent overall this season, but even strong starters give up their share of solo shots to a hitter this dangerous.
The ticket shown here has us buying the Over 0.5 side, where the board listed 26¢ but a $100 order moved the average fill to 27¢.
That's $100 ÷ 27¢, or roughly 363.89 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution.
- If Alvarez hits a home run: the shares pay out $1 each, for a total of $363.89 and a profit of $263.89 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's roughly a 3.64x payout multiple, a reasonable risk/reward shape for a hitter this capable of changing a game with one swing.
Royals vs Blue Jays – Best Home Run Bets Today
Kansas City (59-74) hands the ball to left-hander Noah Cameron, while Toronto (64-69) is expected to lean on Spencer Arrighetti in a game that could turn into a bullpen day for the Blue Jays.
With both clubs picking from the back of their pitching depth, this board is bunched tightly near the top, making it one of the harder best home run bets today calls to separate.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 18¢, implying 18%): Witt is Kansas City's best all-around power threat, and a potential bullpen day for Toronto only helps his cause.
- Jac Caglianone (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 18¢, implying 18%; Under 0.5: 88¢): Caglianone has shown real raw power in his first extended big-league look, and he's priced right alongside Witt at the top of this board.
- Kazuma Okamoto (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 18¢, implying 18%; Under 0.5: 87¢): Okamoto rounds out a three-way tie at the top, and his track record of pull-side power against left-handed pitching like Cameron's stands out here.
- Carter Jensen (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 17¢, implying 17%; Under 0.5: 90¢): Jensen has carved out a role in Kansas City's lineup and offers a live look against a Toronto pitching plan that isn't fully settled.
- Salvador Perez (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 16¢, implying 16%; Under 0.5: 93¢): Perez remains a threat every time up, even in a season where his overall numbers have cooled off some.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kazuma Okamoto (Editor's Pick)
Okamoto is part of a three-way tie at the top of this board at 18¢, and he's the one we're siding with tonight.
He's shown real pull-side pop against left-handed starters, and Cameron has had stretches this season where his fastball has gotten elevated and hit hard.
With Toronto potentially patching this start together with multiple arms, Okamoto also gets a look at a bullpen that hasn't had the benefit of a true starter's usual pitch mix.
This ticket has us buying the Over 0.5 side, where the board showed 18¢ and a $100 order moved the average fill to 19¢.
That's $100 ÷ 19¢, or roughly 532.78 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Okamoto hits a home run: the shares pay out $1 each, for a total of $532.78 and a profit of $432.78 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's better than a 5x payout multiple, a bigger swing than our other picks tonight, reflecting the added uncertainty of a Blue Jays pitching plan that isn't fully locked in.
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Brewers vs Mets – Best Home Run Bets Today
Milwaukee (81-51) sends Jacob Misiorowski, who leads all of MLB in ERA at 1.68 this season, against New York's (60-72) Sean Manaea.
Misiorowski's dominance is the reason this board sits lower across the top 5 than any other game on today's slate.
- Jackson Chourio (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 17¢, implying 17%): Chourio tops this board, and even a strong Mets pitching plan hasn't slowed his pull-side power much this season.
- William Contreras (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 16¢, implying 16%; Under 0.5: 91¢): Contreras is Milwaukee's most consistent power bat, and he's shown he can do damage even against a tough Mets staff.
- Andrew Vaughn (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 15¢, implying 15%; Under 0.5: 93¢): Vaughn provides thump lower in the Brewers order and gets a look at a Manaea fastball that's been hittable at times this year.
- Francisco Lindor (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 14¢, implying 14%; Under 0.5: 93¢): Lindor has come alive at the plate for the Mets recently, giving him a puncher's chance even against Misiorowski's overpowering stuff.
- Luis Robert Jr. (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 13¢, implying 13%; Under 0.5: 95¢): Robert rounds out the top 5, a boom-or-bust bat who's flashed the raw power to run into a Misiorowski mistake.
Best Home Run Prop Today – William Contreras (Editor's Pick)
Contreras is our pick in a game where the home run market as a whole is depressed by Misiorowski's presence on the mound.
He's Milwaukee's most complete power threat, and even the league's best ERA hasn't stopped him from doing damage in the past against Miz.
Priced at 16¢, this is a real longshot swing, and we're treating it as exactly that rather than overselling the odds.
The ticket here has us buying the Over 0.5 side, where the board showed 16¢ and a $100 order moved the average fill to 17¢.
That's $100 ÷ 17¢, or roughly 598.75 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution.
- If Contreras hits a home run: the shares pay out $1 each, for a total of $598.75 and a profit of $498.75 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's nearly a 6x payout multiple, the steepest longshot of our picks tonight, and a reminder that this is an all-or-nothing swing against one of baseball's best arms.
Dodgers vs Braves – Best Home Run Bets Today
This one's a true pitcher's duel: Los Angeles (80-53) sends Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Atlanta (78-55) counters with Chris Sale, two of the best ERAs in the National League.
That context is exactly why this home run board sits at the bottom of today's slate.
- Matt Olson (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 16¢, implying 16%; Under 0.5: 91¢): Olson leads Atlanta's power numbers this season and shares the top spot on this board.
- Shohei Ohtani (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 16¢, implying 16%; Under 0.5: 90¢): Ohtani is tied atop the board, and his raw power gives him a shot against any pitcher, Sale included.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 15¢, implying 15%; Under 0.5: 92¢): Acuña remains a threat every time up even in a game this heavily favoring the pitchers.
- Drake Baldwin (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 13¢, implying 13%; Under 0.5: 94¢): Baldwin has quietly added some pop to Atlanta's lineup this season.
- Max Muncy (Over 0.5 Home Runs: 13¢, implying 13%): Muncy rounds out the top 5, still capable of the long ball even against an ace-caliber arm like Sale.
Muncy's contract is only priced on the Over side right now, so no Under is shown for that line.
No Strong Home Run Lean Tonight, But Ohtani Is the Best Bet
We're not making a formal Editor's Pick trade in this one.
Yamamoto and Sale rank second and third in the National League in ERA, and both have been nearly untouchable for stretches down the stretch, which makes every home run price on this board a genuine longshot.
If we had to lean anywhere, it's Ohtani, whose raw power gives him a shot to change a game with one swing regardless of who's on the mound.
But this is a night to be selective rather than forcing a position into a market that isn't offering much value.
More games are on the Polymarket board beyond these five, including the Orioles-Cardinals and Diamondbacks-Giants matchups, which we'll add home run coverage for once those props are posted.
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MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Final Thoughts
The Rockies-Nationals and Astros-Yankees boards offer the richest home run pricing on the slate, with Hunter Goodman and Yordan Alvarez standing out as the market's clearest favorites in this mlb home run predictions today lineup.
The Royals-Blue Jays board is unusually bunched at the top, a three-way tie between Witt, Caglianone, and Okamoto that reflects genuine uncertainty around Toronto's pitching plan.
On the other end, Misiorowski and the Yamamoto-Sale duel have pushed the Brewers-Mets and Dodgers-Braves boards well below the rest of the slate, which is exactly the kind of pricing gap worth checking against the live prediction market apps before locking in a trade.
MLB Home Run Predictions Today FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, and it unlocks a $20 trading bonus for new users who sign up.
Who is favored to hit a home run tonight?
Hunter Goodman and Yordan Alvarez carry the highest home run prices on tonight's slate at 25¢ each, making them the market's top favorites across all five games.
What is the Editor's Pick for tonight's slate?
Kazuma Okamoto is the featured Editor's Pick for tonight, taken in the Royals-Blue Jays home run market at an 18¢ average fill.
Why is the Dodgers-Braves home run board priced so low?
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Chris Sale rank among the National League's best pitchers by ERA this season, which suppresses every home run price in that matchup.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least one home run in the game and No if they don't, with shares settling at $1 or $0 based on the outcome.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code?
New users can enter the ACTION promo code during Polymarket sign-up to unlock the $20 trading bonus before placing their first trade.
When do these home run contracts resolve?
Home run contracts resolve at the conclusion of each game based on the official box score.
Are there more home run bets available beyond these five games?
Yes, Polymarket's board also covers the Orioles-Cardinals and Diamondbacks-Giants games, and we'll add those once home run props are posted for those matchups.
