Best NFL Prop Bets Today | Patriots vs. Bears Prediction: Best NFL Player Props, Anytime TD Scorer (TNF Best Bets)

My best NFL prop bets today include 10 Patriots vs. Bears prediction markets I traded this morning on Polymarket. Sign up now with Polymarket promo code (ACTION) to tail my NFL picks on Thursday Night Football from Chicago.

• The Patriots (4-2) have won three straight and Drake Maye has thrown at least three touchdown passes in three consecutive games. But A.J. Brown looked rusty in his return from injured reserve and Romeo Doubs is now out on IR.
• The Bears (4-2) are back at Soldier Field with Caleb Williams healthy after a hamstring strain. They come off a 31-23 win in Atlanta where he went 30 of 36 for 305 yards.

Here is a quick look at my best NFL prop bets today on the best prediction markets, with every pick taken straight from my own Polymarket trade ticket.

Read our Action Network dedicated Polymarket review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.

Best NFL Prop Bets Today: Patriots vs. Bears TNF Best Bets

These are real trades I made on Polymarket, and together they make up the best NFL player props and anytime TD scorer predictions for this game. Browse the best prediction market apps and more NFL coverage if you want to compare platforms before you trade these best NFL prop bets today.

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Best Anytime TD Scorer Prediction Today – D'Andre Swift 1+ Touchdown

D'Andre Swift has been the Bears' most reliable path to the end zone. He scored twice in the win over the Falcons, he punched in a fourth-and-1 touchdown in Green Bay the week before, and he has at least five touchdown runs this season.

Kyle Monangai has missed two straight games with turf toe, which left Swift with 16 carries last Sunday.

If Monangai returns today, the workload could dip. But Swift was the back who got the fourth-and-1 call, and my anytime TD scorer predictions lean on that trust.

The ticket buys Yes at an average price of 59¢ with $100 entered, which is roughly 2 shares, and Polymarket lists $164.79 as the return if the trade settles in your favor.

• If Swift scores at least one touchdown, each share settles at $1 and the ticket returns $164.79.
• If he does not score, the full $100 stake is lost.

That works out to a 1.65x return on the $100 ticket.

Best Passing Prop Today – Caleb Williams 2+ Passing Touchdowns

Caleb Williams was nearly perfect in his return from a Grade 2 hamstring strain, going 30 of 36 for 305 yards, yet he threw just one touchdown pass. His only multi-touchdown game this season came in the Week 1 win over the Panthers, when he threw two.

The path to a second touchdown is open. Atlanta pressured Williams only ten times and he went 26 of 26 when the pocket was clean, while Patriots cornerbacks Karon Prunty and Channing Canada were both limited with hamstring injuries on Monday.

The risk is that Chicago keeps scoring on the ground, which it did three times last Sunday. With the total at 50.5, though, a shootout against Drake Maye's offense would force Williams to keep throwing.

The ticket buys Yes at an average price of 58.69¢ with $100 entered, which is roughly 2 shares, and Polymarket lists $165.62 as the return if the trade settles in your favor.

• If Williams throws two or more touchdown passes, each share settles at $1 and the ticket returns $165.62.
• If he throws one or none, the full $100 stake is lost.

That is a 1.66x return on the $100 ticket.

Best NFL Player Props Today – Colston Loveland 40+ Receiving Yards

Colston Loveland spent most of the season on the periphery, then posted season highs of six catches, 65 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons. Five of those catches and 60 of those yards came in the first half, a sign the Bears planned to get him involved early.

He managed only 19 yards on two catches in Week 5 with Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum throwing to him, which shows how much he depends on Williams.

With Williams healthy, and Loveland, Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze combining for 17 catches and 199 yards last week, the target volume should hold.

The ticket buys Yes at an average price of 57¢ with $100 entered, which is roughly 2 shares, and Polymarket lists $170.35 as the return if the trade settles in your favor.

• If Loveland finishes with 40 or more receiving yards, each share settles at $1 and the ticket returns $170.35.
• If he finishes with 39 or fewer, the full $100 stake is lost.

That is a 1.70x return on the $100 ticket.

Best NFL Player Props Today – Luther Burden III 5+ Receptions

Luther Burden III caught all eight of his targets for 95 yards in Atlanta and has now led the Bears in receiving yards in back-to-back games. Through six contests he leads the team in both catches and yards, ahead of Rome Odunze.

He caught four passes in the Week 5 loss with backup quarterbacks, so the floor sits close to this line even when the passing game is broken.

Williams also went 10 for 10 on throws at or behind the line of scrimmage last week, the kind of quick targets that pad a reception total.

The ticket buys Yes at an average price of 55¢ with $100 entered, which is roughly 2 shares, and Polymarket lists $176.30 as the return if the trade settles in your favor.

• If Burden finishes with five or more receptions, each share settles at $1 and the ticket returns $176.30.
• If he finishes with four or fewer, the full $100 stake is lost.

That is a 1.76x return on the $100 ticket.

Best Rushing Prop Today – D'Andre Swift 60+ Rushing Yards

D'Andre Swift ran for 311 yards on 69 carries over the first four games, then logged 43 yards in Week 5 and 44 on 16 carries last Sunday. The 60-yard line sits above both of his recent totals, so this one is a price check as much as a pick.

Roschon Johnson actually led Chicago with 51 yards on 13 carries in Atlanta, and Monangai could return, so the touches are crowded. What keeps Yes live is game script, since the Bears are 60% to win at home and a lead means more late carries for Swift.

The ticket buys Yes at an average price of 54¢ with $100 entered, which is roughly 2 shares, and Polymarket lists $179.44 as the return if the trade settles in your favor.

• If Swift runs for 60 or more yards, each share settles at $1 and the ticket returns $179.44.
• If he finishes with 59 or fewer, the full $100 stake is lost.

That is a 1.79x return on the $100 ticket.

Best Receiving Prop Today – A.J. Brown Under 70 Receiving Yards

A.J. Brown has not looked like himself since the ankle injury. He caught three passes for 27 yards on ten targets in his return from injured reserve, with three drops, and he had just 26 yards in the Week 1 loss before getting hurt.

The counterpoint is volume. With Romeo Doubs on injured reserve and Drake Maye throwing at least three touchdown passes in three straight games, Brown should keep seeing heavy targets, and one deep ball is enough to reach 70.

That is why the No side is priced at only 52%. The ticket buys No at an average price of 52.99¢ with $100 entered, which is roughly 2 shares, and Polymarket lists $182.73 as the return if the trade settles in your favor.

• If Brown finishes with 69 or fewer receiving yards, each No share settles at $1 and the ticket returns $182.73.
• If he reaches 70 yards, the full $100 stake is lost.

That is a 1.83x return on the $100 ticket.

Best Rushing Prop Today – Caleb Williams 20+ Rushing Yards

Caleb Williams ran for 65 yards and two touchdowns in the Week 1 win over Carolina and finished his first two games with 107 rushing yards on 15 carries. He cleared 20 yards in both of those starts.

Last Sunday was the outlier, with just three rushing yards as his hamstring was still being managed. The short week and a hamstring that was only recently cleared are the reasons this sits at 52% rather than higher.

The ticket buys Yes at an average price of 52¢ with $100 entered, which is roughly 2 shares, and Polymarket lists $186.09 as the return if the trade settles in your favor.

• If Williams runs for 20 or more yards, each share settles at $1 and the ticket returns $186.09.
• If he finishes with 19 or fewer, the full $100 stake is lost.

That is a 1.86x return on the $100 ticket.

Best Passing Prop Today – Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards

Drake Maye has been efficient more than voluminous lately, throwing for 235 yards and three touchdowns on 32 attempts against the Jets.

It was his third straight game with at least three touchdown passes, something no Patriots quarterback had done since Tom Brady in 2014.

The Patriots are 40% to win on the road, and an underdog script tends to mean more dropbacks. The risk is a patched offensive line, with Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker sitting out Monday's walkthrough and Morgan Moses limited.

The ticket buys Yes at an average price of 51.72¢ with $100 entered, which is roughly 2 shares, and Polymarket lists $187.07 as the return if the trade settles in your favor.

• If Maye throws for 250 or more yards, each share settles at $1 and the ticket returns $187.07.
• If he finishes with 249 or fewer, the full $100 stake is lost.

That is a 1.87x return on the $100 ticket.

Best Anytime TD Scorer Prediction Today – Rhamondre Stevenson 1+ Touchdown

Rhamondre Stevenson is the volume play in the New England backfield. TreVeyon Henderson was expected to miss time with a high-ankle sprain, which pushed more work toward Stevenson, but Henderson was a full participant in Monday's walkthrough.

That matters because all three Patriots touchdowns against the Jets came through the air, with Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry each catching one.

If Henderson is back in a larger role, the goal-line work gets split, which makes this one of the most balanced anytime TD scorer predictions on the board at 50%.

The ticket buys Yes at an average price of 50¢ with $100 entered, which is roughly 2 shares, and Polymarket lists $193.28 as the return if the trade settles in your favor.

• If Stevenson scores at least one touchdown, each share settles at $1 and the ticket returns $193.28.
• If he does not score, the full $100 stake is lost.

That is a 1.93x return on the $100 ticket.

Best Rushing Prop Today – D'Andre Swift 16+ Rushing Attempts

D'Andre Swift carried exactly 16 times last Sunday with Monangai out, and he averaged more than 17 carries a game over the first four weeks of the season. That makes 16 a number he reaches when he is the clear lead back.

The Yes price is only 47% because the workload is not locked in. Roschon Johnson took 13 carries in Atlanta, Monangai may return, and the Bears threw 36 times last week with Williams under center.

A Chicago lead would help, since the Bears are 60% to win at home. The ticket buys Yes at an average price of 47¢ with $100 entered, which is roughly 2 shares, and Polymarket lists $205.21 as the return if the trade settles in your favor.

• If Swift has 16 or more rushing attempts, each share settles at $1 and the ticket returns $205.21.
• If he has 15 or fewer, the full $100 stake is lost.

That is a 2.05x return, the longest payout on the board.

Patriots vs. Bears Prediction: Moneyline, Spread and Total

Here is how the full-game markets on Polymarket look for this Patriots vs. Bears prediction, with both sides of every line included.

The Bears are clear moneyline favorites, but the 3.5-point spread prices closer to a coin flip, and the 50.5-point total leans slightly toward the Over.

What's Moving the Market for Patriots vs. Bears

The biggest swing factor on this board is Caleb Williams being back. The Bears look like a different offense with him under center, and Polymarket has them at 60% to win, which supports the Swift, Loveland and Burden prices in my best NFL prop bets today.

On the other side, New England's health is the main source of doubt. Romeo Doubs is on injured reserve, three offensive linemen went down against the Jets, and A.J. Brown still looks out of sync.

Thisis why Maye's yardage and Brown's receiving line both sit near 50%. Prediction markets react quickly to inactive lists, so watch the status of Kyle Monangai and TreVeyon Henderson before kickoff.

Both backfields feed straight into the Swift and Stevenson props, and it is worth rechecking the live price before you trade any of my TNF best bets.

How to Trade These Picks on Polymarket

Ready to get in on this board? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading best NFL prop bets today:

• Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
• Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
• When you're ready, sign up with Polymarket promo code ACTION to get started!

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Final Thoughts on the Best NFL Prop Bets Today

My best NFL prop bets today pair two 4-2 teams, two quarterbacks from the 2024 draft class and a board of fairly priced props.

These best NFL player props lean on Chicago's balanced offense, with Swift, Williams, Loveland and Burden all in play at Soldier Field.

The Patriots side is more of a wait-and-see, since A.J. Brown's Under and Drake Maye's yardage both depend on how quickly the offense clicks. Wherever you land, this Patriots vs. Bears prediction will turn on Chicago's health and New England's offensive line.

Check the latest injury news before kickoff, and treat each of these TNF best bets as its own trade, priced by the market. If you want more touchdown ideas, my anytime TD scorer predictions for Swift and Stevenson are the place to start.

FAQs

What are the best NFL prop bets today for Patriots vs. Bears?

The best NFL prop bets today center on the Bears' offense, with D'Andre Swift to score a touchdown, Caleb Williams to throw multiple touchdown passes, and Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III to stay involved as receivers.

On the Patriots side, Drake Maye's passing yards and A.J. Brown's receiving line are the key markets.

What is the best Patriots vs. Bears prediction for TNF?

At the time of writing, Polymarket has the Bears at 60% to win at Soldier Field and the Patriots at 40%.

The market also prices the Bears to win by more than 3.5 points at 46% and the Over on a 50.5-point total at 52%, so it expects a competitive, higher-scoring game.

What are the best NFL player props for Patriots vs. Bears?

My best NFL player props include Swift's touchdown and rushing markets, Williams' passing touchdowns, Loveland's receiving yards and Burden's receptions.

Each one is a Yes or No contract on Polymarket, so you are trading whether the player reaches a set stat line.

Who are the best anytime TD scorer predictions for Patriots vs. Bears?

D'Andre Swift is the top anytime TD scorer prediction at 59%, since he scored twice last week and has at least five rushing touchdowns this season. Rhamondre Stevenson sits at 50% and depends on how much work TreVeyon Henderson gets back.

What are the TNF best bets on Polymarket for this game?

The TNF best bets on Polymarket range from Bears touchdown scorers to quarterback and receiver props, and every price in this article comes from a real trade ticket. Prices can move before kickoff, so check the live market before you trade.

How do I use the Polymarket promo code?

Sign up through the link in this article, verify your account, make a qualifying deposit and enter the promo code when prompted. Review the full terms and conditions in the box above before you start trading.

What do the percentages on Polymarket prop markets mean?

A price of 59 cents implies a 59% chance, and each winning share pays out one dollar when the market settles. Your return depends on the average price you pay and the amount you enter.

Where can I watch Patriots vs. Bears on Thursday Night Football?

Thursday Night Football streams on Prime Video. The game is also available over the air in Boston and Chicago markets.