The Kalshi promo code (ACTION55) is perfect to use on Thursday Night Football at Soldier Field, and this Patriots vs Bears prediction rounds up our best NFL prop bets today straight from the live Kalshi board.
- The Patriots arrive 4-2 and winners of three straight after a 26-19 win over the Jets, but they lost three offensive linemen in that game and Romeo Doubs is on injured reserve.
- The Bears are also 4-2 after a 31-23 win in Atlanta, where Caleb Williams returned from a hamstring injury, and Chicago is a home favorite with Kalshi's spread at Bears -3.5 and the total at 50.5.
Here is our full picks table of the best NFL player props from the best prediction markets, with every trade priced off Kalshi's live board before we break down each pick.
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams 20+ Rushing Yards | Yes | 52¢ | $186.03 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards | Yes | 52¢ | $192.31 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Caleb Williams 250+ Passing Yards | Yes | 50¢ | $200.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Rhamondre Stevenson 1+ Anytime TD | Yes | 49¢ | $197.04 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| A.J. Brown 70+ Receiving Yards | Yes | 49¢ | $197.04 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ Rushing Yards | Yes | 44¢ | $218.68 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| A.J. Brown 1+ Anytime TD | Yes | 40¢ | $235.81 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Luther Burden III 1+ Anytime TD | Yes | 33¢ | $289.45 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Colston Loveland 1+ Anytime TD | Yes | 33¢ | $289.45 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Caleb Williams 1+ Anytime TD | Yes | 21¢ | $451.21 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Read our dedicated Kalshi review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.
Best NFL Player Props for Patriots vs Bears on TNF
Every pick below is a real trade we'd make on Kalshi, part of our best NFL player props for this entire matchup, ranked from the most likely to hit down to the longer shots. For more, browse the best prediction market apps or head to our NFL hub.
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Rushing Yards Prop Today – Caleb Williams 20+ Yards
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams 20+ Rushing Yards | Yes | 52¢ | $186.03 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Caleb Williams returned from a hamstring injury last Sunday and looked like he never left, going 30 of 36 for 305 yards and a touchdown in Chicago's 31-23 win over Atlanta.
Twenty yards is a modest number for a quarterback who can pick up yardage with his legs, and Chicago leads the NFL in rushing while holding the ball for about 36 minutes a night. New England's defense is top-six in points and yards allowed, so scrambles and keepers may be one of the more reliable ways for Williams to add to his total.
The real risk is the hamstring. If Chicago wants to protect him, he could hand off more of that ground work.
At a $100 buy near 52 cents, this works out to roughly 192 contracts, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes, with Kalshi's stated max payout at $186.03.
- If Williams reaches 20 rushing yards: return of $186.03.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
That's a 1.86x return on a number that sits right around a coin flip.
Passing Yards Prop Today – Drake Maye 250+ Yards
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards | Yes | 52¢ | $192.31 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Chicago's pass defense gives up 8.4 yards per attempt, which ranks 31st in the NFL, and Drake Maye has been moving the ball well during New England's three-game winning streak.
The receiver room is thin with Romeo Doubs on injured reserve and A.J. Brown limited by an ankle, but that also funnels a heavy target load to the players who are healthy. The market agrees, moving this number up seven points.
The risk is protection. New England lost three offensive linemen in its 26-19 win over the Jets, and Chicago owns the league's second-best sack rate.
At a $100 buy near 52 cents, this works out to roughly 192 contracts, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes, for an estimated return of $192.31 based on standard price math.
- If Maye throws for 250 or more yards: return of $192.31.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
At close to 1.9x, this is a fair price on a quarterback who should be throwing plenty if the game stays close.
Passing Yards Prop Today – Caleb Williams 250+ Yards
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams 250+ Passing Yards | Yes | 50¢ | $200.00 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Williams leads the NFL in completion percentage and was a perfect 26-for-26 last week when he wasn't pressured. He finished with 305 yards against the Falcons.
New England's secondary is thin, with cornerback Carlton Davis III (neck) a non-participant on the Monday estimated report and two more corners limited. That gives Chicago's receivers a path to chunk plays.
The counterpoint is game script. Ben Johnson would rather run the ball and bleed the clock, and the Patriots' defense is allowing just 18.8 points per game.
At a $100 buy near 50 cents, this works out to roughly 200 contracts, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes, for an estimated return of $200.00 based on standard price math.
- If Williams throws for 250 or more yards: return of $200.00.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
This one pays exactly double on a true coin-flip number.
Anytime Touchdown Prop Today – Rhamondre Stevenson 1+ Touchdown
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson 1+ Anytime TD | Yes | 49¢ | $197.04 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Rhamondre Stevenson is the top-priced Patriots player on the anytime touchdown board, and New England has rushed for 143 or more yards in each of its last three wins.
Soldier Field has been a tough place to score, with opponents converting just 17% of their third downs there, so long drives are hard to come by. When the Patriots do get near the goal line, we expect them to lean on their veteran back.
Chicago's offense leans on the run too, so the game may not have many possessions, which is the main risk for any touchdown ticket.
At a $100 buy near 49 cents, this works out to roughly 204 contracts, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes, with Kalshi's stated max payout at $197.04.
- If Stevenson scores a touchdown: return of $197.04.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
Nearly 2x your money on a number the market has at close to even.
Receiving Yards Prop Today – A.J. Brown 70+ Yards
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown 70+ Receiving Yards | Yes | 49¢ | $197.04 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
A.J. Brown caught just 3 of 10 targets with three drops against the Jets in his return, and he has said there is no excuse for it. Bounce-back spots like this one are where the market can undervalue a true No. 1 receiver.
With Romeo Doubs on injured reserve, targets have to go somewhere, and Chicago's pass defense is allowing 8.4 yards per attempt. The market has moved this line up nine points.
Brown's ankle, which has him listed as limited, is the thing to watch before kickoff.
At a $100 buy near 49 cents, this works out to roughly 204 contracts, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes, with Kalshi's stated max payout at $197.04.
- If Brown reaches 70 receiving yards: return of $197.04.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
Another near coin flip that returns almost double your stake.
Rushing Yards Prop Today – Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ Yards
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ Rushing Yards | Yes | 44¢ | $218.68 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
New England's ground game has been steady during the win streak, and Drake Maye's legs (138 rushing yards on the season) help the Patriots' rushing numbers look better than they are.
A patched-up offensive line on a short week is the obvious concern, but a run-first approach can also keep Chicago's pass rush from pinning its ears back.
Fifty yards is a reachable number for a veteran back if the Patriots stay committed to the ground game.
At a $100 buy near 44 cents, this works out to roughly 227 contracts, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes, with Kalshi's stated max payout at $218.68.
- If Stevenson reaches 50 rushing yards: return of $218.68.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
A 2.19x return for a number that is priced below a coin flip.
Anytime Touchdown Prop Today – A.J. Brown 1+ Touchdown
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown 1+ Anytime TD | Yes | 40¢ | $235.81 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
A.J. Brown is New England's No. 1 target, and the Patriots' touchdown chances run through him more than ever with Romeo Doubs out.
Chicago is also without defensive end Montez Sweat (suspended) and Dayo Odeyingbo (injured reserve), which could give Drake Maye a little more time to let routes develop.
The ankle and a rough outing against the Jets keep this from being a lock, but the price accounts for that.
At a $100 buy near 40 cents, this works out to roughly 250 contracts, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes, with Kalshi's stated max payout at $235.81.
- If Brown scores a touchdown: return of $235.81.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
Better than 2.3x your stake for a receiver who is the focal point of the offense.
Anytime Touchdown Prop Today – Luther Burden III 1+ Touchdown
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III 1+ Anytime TD | Yes | 33¢ | $289.45 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Chicago put up 31 points in Atlanta, and Luther Burden III is one half of a receiver pairing the Bears are counting on to carry the offense alongside Rome Odunze.
The Patriots' secondary is dealing with injuries, and Caleb Williams is at his best when he has time to throw.
Burden is priced identically to Colston Loveland, so this is a value play on which Bears target finds the end zone.
At a $100 buy near 33 cents, this works out to roughly 303 contracts, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes, with Kalshi's stated max payout at $289.45.
- If Burden scores a touchdown: return of $289.45.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
Nearly a 2.9x return on a Bears pass catcher in a favorable matchup.
Anytime Touchdown Prop Today – Colston Loveland 1+ Touchdown
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland 1+ Anytime TD | Yes | 33¢ | $289.45 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Colston Loveland is a versatile tight end who can line up anywhere across the formation, which creates matchup problems for a New England defense that has to account for Chicago's wideouts first.
Chicago's offense is humming with Williams back under center, and tight ends are often the beneficiaries when defenses focus on the outside receivers.
He shares tight end snaps with Cole Kmet, which is the main reason this is a longer shot.
At a $100 buy near 33 cents, this works out to roughly 303 contracts, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes, with Kalshi's stated max payout at $289.45.
- If Loveland scores a touchdown: return of $289.45.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
Same payout as Burden at close to 2.9x, with a different path to getting there.
Anytime Touchdown Prop Today – Caleb Williams 1+ Touchdown
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams 1+ Anytime TD | Yes | 21¢ | $451.21 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
This market is for touchdowns excluding passing, so Williams needs to score on the ground. Chicago leads the NFL in rushing, and a quarterback keeper near the goal line is always a live option.
The hamstring is a legitimate concern, and Chicago may protect him near the goal line, but a 21-cent price already accounts for that risk.
It is the longest shot of our picks, built for traders who want a bigger multiple on a single play.
At a $100 buy near 21 cents, this works out to roughly 476 contracts, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes, with Kalshi's stated max payout at $451.21.
- If Williams scores a rushing touchdown: return of $451.21.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
At better than 4.5x, it's the biggest payout on our board.
Patriots vs Bears Prediction: Moneyline, Spread and Total
Before the player prop boards, here is where the base game lines stand on Kalshi for this Patriots vs Bears prediction.
| 🏈 TNF Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE ML | Yes | 41¢ | $243.90 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| CHI ML | Yes | 60¢ | $166.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| CHI -3.5 | Yes | 46¢ | $217.39 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| NE +3.5 (CHI -3.5 NO) | No | 55¢ | $181.82 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Over 50.5 | Yes | 52¢ | $192.31 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Under 50.5 (Over NO) | No | 49¢ | $204.08 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Anytime TD Scorer Predictions
Our anytime TD scorer predictions below cover every player Kalshi has priced for this game, with defensive and special teams touchdowns excluded, sorted from the safest bet down to the deepest longshot.
- D'Andre Swift (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 59¢): Chicago's lead back on the league's top rushing offense.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 49¢): the top-priced Patriots player on the board and one of our picks above.
- A.J. Brown (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 40¢): New England's No. 1 target with Romeo Doubs on injured reserve.
- Luther Burden III (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 33¢): one half of Chicago's top receiver pairing and one of our picks above.
- Colston Loveland (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 33¢): a versatile tight end who can line up anywhere across the formation.
- Rome Odunze (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 33¢): Chicago's other top receiver, priced the same as Burden.
- Roschon Johnson (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 29¢): a rotation back who could see more work if Kyle Monangai (turf toe) can't go.
- Hunter Henry (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 29¢): a veteran tight end who benefits from New England's thin receiver room.
- TreVeyon Henderson (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 25¢): a complementary back in New England's rotation.
- DeMario Douglas (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 22¢): a slot receiver who should see targets with Doubs out.
- Drake Maye (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 22¢): rushing touchdown equity from a quarterback who has run for 138 yards this season.
- Caleb Williams (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 21¢): rushing touchdown equity for Chicago's quarterback and one of our picks above.
- Kalif Raymond (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 18¢): a veteran receiver and return specialist in Chicago's depth chart.
- Efton Chism III (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 16¢): a depth receiver who could see more snaps with Doubs on injured reserve.
- Cole Kmet (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 14¢): Chicago's veteran tight end who shares the field with Loveland.
- Eli Raridon (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 14¢): a depth tight end in New England's offense.
- Kyle Williams (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 10¢): a depth receiver for New England.
- Corey Kiner (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 8¢): a depth running back for New England.
- Sam Roush (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 8¢): a depth tight end for Chicago.
- Zavion Thomas (Anytime Touchdown 1+: Yes 6¢): a depth receiver for Chicago.
QB Passing Predictions: Williams and Maye
The two starting quarterbacks both have passing yardage markets on the board, and both overs are part of our best NFL prop bets today.
- Drake Maye (Passing Yards 250+: Yes 52¢): Chicago allows 8.4 yards per pass attempt, but New England's offensive line is thin.
- Caleb Williams (Passing Yards 250+: Yes 50¢): the NFL's completion percentage leader threw for 305 yards last Sunday.
Receiving Yards Props
Here is the full receiving yards board for both teams, sorted from the most likely to the longest shot.
- Hunter Henry (Receiving Yards 25+: Yes 67¢): a low bar for a veteran tight end in a thin New England receiver room.
- DeMario Douglas (Receiving Yards 25+: Yes 64¢): a slot target who should see volume with Romeo Doubs on injured reserve.
- Efton Chism III (Receiving Yards 15+: Yes 61¢): a depth receiver whose number is easy to reach if the snaps are there.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (Receiving Yards 15+: Yes 61¢): a check-down option against a pass rush with the league's second-best sack rate.
- Colston Loveland (Receiving Yards 40+: Yes 56¢): a matchup piece in Chicago's passing game.
- Kalif Raymond (Receiving Yards 25+: Yes 55¢): a veteran depth receiver in Chicago's rotation.
- A.J. Brown (Receiving Yards 70+: Yes 49¢): the highest bar on New England's board and one of our picks above.
- Luther Burden III (Receiving Yards 60+: Yes 48¢): Chicago's top young receiver, priced close to a coin flip.
- Rome Odunze (Receiving Yards 50+: Yes 48¢): Chicago's other top target, priced the same as Burden.
- D'Andre Swift (Receiving Yards 25+: Yes 41¢): a pass-catching floor for Chicago's lead back.
- Cole Kmet (Receiving Yards 15+: Yes 36¢): a low bar for Chicago's veteran tight end, though he splits work with Loveland.
Rushing Yards Props
The rushing board is a short one, but it includes two of our picks.
- Drake Maye (Rushing Yards 25+: Yes 59¢): his legs have added 138 rushing yards this season.
- D'Andre Swift (Rushing Yards 60+: Yes 52¢): Chicago's lead back on the league's top rushing offense.
- Caleb Williams (Rushing Yards 20+: Yes 52¢): one of our picks above, with the hamstring the lone concern.
- TreVeyon Henderson (Rushing Yards 30+: Yes 51¢): a complementary back in New England's rotation.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (Rushing Yards 50+: Yes 44¢): one of our picks above and the bellcow of New England's ground game.
What's Moving the Market
Prediction markets and prices can move for several reasons. On the game lines, Chicago slipped a point to 59% on the moneyline while New England ticked up to 41%, and the total climbed four points to 52% on the Over.
That tracks with the sportsbook market, where the total opened at 49.5 and has since climbed to 50.5. The Bears' spread at -3.5 on Kalshi is up two points to 46% as well.
The player props tell a similar story for our best NFL player props. Drake Maye's 250+ passing yards line jumped seven points and A.J. Brown's 70+ receiving yards number gained nine, while Maye's 25+ rushing yards line fell nine and Efton Chism III's 15+ receiving yards price dropped 10.
Injuries are doing a lot of the work. New England's offensive line took a beating against the Jets, Romeo Doubs is on injured reserve, and Chicago is dealing with Kyle Monangai (turf toe) and right guard Jonah Jackson, who were non-participants on Monday's estimated report. Our anytime TD scorer predictions lean on the healthiest, highest-usage players on both sides.
How to Trade These TNF Best Bets on Kalshi
Ready to get in on these TNF best bets yourself? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading Thursday's board:
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
- When you're ready, sign up with Kalshi promo code ACTION55 to get started!
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Final Thoughts: Best NFL Prop Bets Today
Both teams are 4-2 and both offenses are dealing with injuries on a short week, which is why we leaned toward players with clear roles and favorable matchups across our best NFL prop bets today.
Caleb Williams' arm and legs headline the board, with Rhamondre Stevenson and A.J. Brown carrying the load for a banged-up New England offense. Our anytime TD scorer predictions mix a couple of likely scorers with a few longer shots for traders chasing a bigger multiple.
That wraps our full Patriots vs Bears prediction and every Thursday Night Football pick we'd make on the Kalshi board.
Patriots vs Bears Prediction FAQs
Who wins the Patriots vs Bears prediction on Thursday night? The Kalshi board favors Chicago at 60% to win outright, with the Bears priced at 46% to cover a 3.5-point spread.
What are the best NFL prop bets today for Patriots vs Bears? Our top plays include Caleb Williams over 20 rushing yards, both quarterbacks over 250 passing yards, and Rhamondre Stevenson to score an anytime touchdown.
What are the TNF best bets on Kalshi? Our TNF best bets range from near coin-flip yardage props to longer shots like Caleb Williams to score a rushing touchdown.
What are the best anytime TD scorer predictions for Patriots vs Bears? D'Andre Swift is the most likely player to score at 59%, followed by Rhamondre Stevenson at 49% and A.J. Brown at 40%.
What is the total for Patriots vs Bears? The total is set at 50.5 points, with the Over priced at 52% and the Under at 49% on Kalshi.
How do Kalshi contracts settle? Each Yes contract pays out one dollar if the stated outcome happens and nothing if it doesn't, and the price you pay reflects the market's implied probability.
How do I use a Kalshi promo code? Create an account, make a qualifying deposit, and enter the Kalshi promo code ACTION55 during signup before you place your first trade.
How can I watch Patriots vs Bears on Thursday Night Football? The game streams on Prime Video from Soldier Field in Chicago on Thursday night.
