The plot is thickening in Alaska’s Senate race. Like a film saving its twist for the final act, this one now has an ending that could run well past Election Day. The U.S. Department of Justice has sued to delay certification of Alaska’s Senate election if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses to Democrat Mary Peltola, arguing that a second candidate sharing the incumbent’s name could throw off voters. Prediction markets aren’t treating the filing as a real threat to the outcome: on Polymarket, the “Alaska Senate Election Winner” contract has Peltola as the favorite, with its price barely moving.
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DOJ sues over Alaska’s Senate ballot: what the lawsuit asks a judge to do
Two Dan Sullivans on the same Senate ballot? It’s not a stand-in or a secret-twin twist out of The Prestige, it’s a coincidence. One of them is a retired schoolteacher who happens to share his opponent’s first and last name.
In the suit it filed last Thursday, the DOJ argues he entered the race to mislead Sen. Dan Sullivan’s supporters, and asks a judge to let state officials delay certification if the senator loses by less than the votes his namesake drew, pending a review of whether confused voters picked the wrong Sullivan. The department cites a federal voter-registration law’s language on the “integrity of the electoral process,” though election law scholars call that reading unusually broad.
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Trump says he ordered the suit; AG Blanche says it won’t stop certification
President Donald Trump told reporters in Florida he was behind the move: “I’m the one that said ‘do it.’” Attorney General Todd Blanche followed two days later, saying the department hadn’t coordinated with any campaign and that the goal is keeping ballots “preserved” so Alaska officials can judge any voter confusion themselves, not blocking certification.
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Peltola campaign and DSCC move to intervene and dismiss the case
Peltola’s campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee filed their own motion days later, asking the court to let them join the case and throw it out. Attorney Marc Elias, who represents both, said the filing fights an attempt “to rig the Alaska Senate election.” Peltola herself, in an MS NOW interview, called the DOJ suit “a very desperate attempt to cling to power” and said she trusts Alaska’s vote count.
Why Alaska’s Supreme Court let both Sullivans stay on the ballot
This isn’t the first time the coincidence has caused a stir. Daniel J. Sullivan’s candidacy has been contested since the primary, when state election officials tried to strike him from the ballot over concerns he’d split the incumbent’s support: only for a Superior Court judge to reinstate him ahead of August’s primary, a call Alaska’s Supreme Court later upheld.
The results weren’t close: the incumbent took roughly 68,700 votes to about 4,100 for his namesake. On the November ballot, Sen. Sullivan is labeled the “Registered Republican” incumbent, while Daniel J. Sullivan appears with no party listed. Alaska’s ranked-choice system also lets voters rank both Sullivans, so a vote meant for the incumbent can still reach him in later rounds.
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Alaska Senate polls and ratings with Election Day closing in
Public polling has been thin, but Decision Desk HQ’s average puts Peltola up roughly two points, enough for a “lean Democratic” call. Cook Political Report still rates the seat a toss-up. The prediction markets are even more convinced Peltola comes out on top: besides Polymarket’s 75-cent price, Kalshi’s Alaska Senate contract has Peltola at 76%, and its broader market on Senate control overall puts the Democratic party at 63% to take the chamber.
What happens next: court dates and Alaska’s certification timeline
The case landed with Judge Sharon Gleason, an Obama appointee, and as of the latest filings the DOJ hadn’t asked for an emergency ruling before Election Day, so no hearing date has been set yet. Alaska won’t start its ranked-choice tabulation until Nov. 18, once overseas ballots are in; meaning however this race finishes, nobody will have a final answer, from the courts or the count, on election night itself.
