NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs. Kings (November 27)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs. Kings (November 27) article feature image

Debora Robinson/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Alex DeBrincat and Drake Batherson

  • The Kings are strong home favorites in Sunday night's matchup with the Senators.
  • Ottawa has been a bit unlucky so far this season, so there could be value on the road underdogs.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Senators vs. Kings Odds

Senators Odds+130
Kings Odds-155
Over/Under6.5 (-105/-115)
Time10:30 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Fresh off a 5-1 win in Anaheim on Friday, the Ottawa Senators will wrap up their four-game Western road trip on Sunday by taking on the Los Angeles Kings.

With a record of 7-12-1 so far this season, the Senators are currently stuck in last place in the tough Atlantic Division.

Meanwhile, their hosts sit third in the Pacific with a record of 12-9-2. The Kings are opening a four-game homestand and snapped a three-game winless skid on Friday with a 5-2 win in San Jose.

Here's the latest on both teams, and your best bet for the game.

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Senators Have Been Unlucky

Is Ottawa Senators coach D.J. Smith on the hot seat? There have been whispers after the club made substantial upgrades to its roster but has not yet played its way into contention.

The Sens are six points ahead of last season's pace through 20 games, but they're still lingering at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. And before taking down the West's cellar-dweller in Anaheim on Friday, Ottawa had been outscored by a disheartening 14-3 margin in its previous three games.

According to the numbers, Smith and his team have probably deserved better this season. Their expected goals share at 5-on-5 is a very respectable 52.52%, tied with the Seattle Kraken for 12th-best in the league. Even with their recent scoring drought, they're still averaging a decent 3.15 goals per game and their special teams are solid, with a top-10 power play and a penalty kill that's in the middle of the pack.

They're a little porous defensively, averaging 3.45 goals against per game, but their underlying analytics don't suggest that they should be struggling to earn points as much as they are.

On the injury front, goaltender Anton Forsberg practiced on Saturday after missing Friday's game with what was described as a lower-body injury. The Sens have announced that they'll be starting Cam Talbot in net against Los Angeles.

Talbot's numbers are a microcosm of how the Hockey Gods are conspiring against Ottawa this season. He has a very solid 2.58 goals-against average, a .918 save percentage and 3.1 goals saved above expected, yet his record is 2-5-0.

The Sens are thin on the blue line and got a little thinner last week, when they placed defenseman Jacob Bernard-Docker on injured reserve with an ankle issue.

Kings Battling Inconsistency

On the home bench, the Los Angeles Kings are sitting pretty in the Pacific despite a minus-3 goal differential and some inconsistencies of their own. Their puck possession game is solid, ranked sixth with control of 54.42% of expected goals at 5-on-5.

They score just a little more than the Senators, averaging 3.22 goals per game, and give up just a little less, at 3.39. But their power play is somewhat weaker, and so is their penalty killing.

And the Kings aren't getting much out of their goaltenders so far this season. Both Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen have GAAs over three, save percentages below .900 and negative goals saved above expected — yet both have winning records. Quick is 7-6-1 for the year and Petersen is 5-3-1.

The Kings are also currently missing two key forwards. Alex Iafallo and Brendan Lemieux are both on the injured list.

Senators vs. Kings Pick

The Kings will be a tougher opponent for the Senators than the Ducks were on Friday, but L.A.'s moneyline of -160 at BetMGM implies a 61.54% chance of a win for the home team — and that seems a bit steep.

Ottawa deserves better results than what they've been seeing lately. If the Senators get another strong showing from Talbot behind their stronger special teams, they could close out their Western swing by stealing two points in Crypto.com arena on Sunday — and enriching the bettors who back them.

Pick: Senators moneyline (+130); play down to +110

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