2020 NFL Draft Prop Betting Picks: 3 Quarterback Bets From Our Experts
John Korduner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Love
- Looking for quarterback prop betting picks for tonight's NFL Draft? You've come to the right place.
- Below you'll find 3 prop bets from our NFL experts: Matthew Freedman, Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon.
- They're tackling draft position over/unders for Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert, as well as the over/under on quarterbacks taken in the first round.
The 2020 NFL Draft kicks off on Thursday, April 23 at 8 p.m. ET.
Quarterbacks are the story of Round 1. Joe Burrow is a mortal lock to go No. 1 overall to Cincinnati, while Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert are expected to follow in the top 10. Utah State’s Jordan Love is also expected to be selected in the first round.
There is plenty of uncertainty — outside of Cincinnati’s all-but-official selection of Burrow — surrounding the other three first-round rated quarterbacks. Will Tua’s hip injury cause him to fall? Will a team outside the top-5 make a trade to pick either Herbert or Tagovailoa? Can another quarterback, say Jake Fromm or Jacob Eason, sneak into Round 1?
Here are our staff’s favorite quarterback props for the 2020 NFL Draft.
NFL Draft Promos!
The Bet: Tua Tagovailoa over 4.5 -271 (PointsBet)
Weeks ago, a lot of mock drafters envisioned a scenario in which the Dolphins or Chargers would trade up to No. 3 in order to draft Tagovailoa. But now, with numerous reports stating that multiple teams have concerns about his recovering hip injury and medical history, Tagovailoa has started to slip down the draft board.
It now seems unlikely that a team will trade up to No. 3 for a quarterback, and if one does, it might be Justin Herbert (Oregon), not Tagovailoa.
And if the Dolphins and Chargers don’t trade up to No. 3, they’re almost certainly not going to trade up to No. 4.
In 90% of the recent expert mocks I’ve surveyed, Tagovailoa is drafted no earlier than pick No. 5.
I’d bet over 4.5 to -400.
The Bet: Justin Herbert draft position Over 5.5 -130 (FanDuel)
I would consider this bet to be a bit of a parlay with my bet on Jeff Okudah to be drafted third overall. If the Lions end up keeping the No. 3 pick and drafting Okudah, it would likely make this prop effectively “Who will the Dolphins draft?”
I realize there is a chance Miami decides to go with Herbert, but I’m willing to eat the -130 juice to bet against that happening. The only reason we are having this debate is because of Tua Tagovailoa’s hip injury. It’s a legitimate concern, but all reporting around it makes him sound likely to make a near-full recovery. If he does turn out to be healthy, he should be a top QB in the league in the next few years.
Herbert, on the other hand, has some serious question marks and is hardly a slam-dunk pick. I think, because of this, the Dolphins end up going with Tua. It will be easier down the road if Tua’s injury concern ends up biting them to blame it on “bad luck” as opposed to how they will look if Tua ends up playing lights out for years to come.
The Bet: Under 4.5 QBs Taken in Round 1 -670 (FanDuel)
Burrow. Tua. Herbert. Maaaybe Jordan Love. That’s four. Who is this fifth impostor QB that goes in Round 1? Exactly.
The consensus fifth QB projected to go off the board is Jacob Eason (Washington), who has a median projection of pick No. 65 in ESPN’s model. His best-case scenario in the model doesn’t even make the first round, topping out at No. 34 overall. The other possibilities are Jake Fromm (Georgia) and Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma), who both have medians outside the top 80 and best-case projections no better than No. 50.