2021 NFL Player Season-Long Prop Best Bets: Sean Koerner & Chris Raybon’s Favorite Picks
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – DECEMBER 13: Jameis Winston #2 of the New Orleans Saints signals for the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field on December 13, 2020 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
With the NFL season only a week away, The Action Network’s Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon have compiled their favorite player prop bets for the 2021-22 season.
The numbers listed come from PrizePicks. Operating under the daily fantasy umbrella — meaning they’re available in more states than betting is — PrizePicks offers a different spin on player props. Instead of betting on individual props, you parlay two or more props together.
While the numbers come from PrizePicks, similar numbers may be available across the betting market.
Below is a list of Koerner and Raybon’s four favorite over/under bets for each of the quarterback, running back and wide receiver/tight end positions.
You can listen to their rationale for each pick on the Fantasy Flex podcast linked below hosted by The Action Network and FantasyLabs.
Koerner is The Action Network’s Director of Predictive Analytics and was named the No. 1 fantasy football draft ranker by FantasyPros in 2019. Koerner has also finished as the top in-season ranker at FantasyPros in three of the past five seasons.
Raybon finished in the top five in fantasy football rankings accuracy at FantasyPros in 2019 and 11th in 2020.
Quarterback Player Prop Picks
- Jameis Winston under 4,200.5 passing yards. (Koerner’s note: Would bet down to 4,000 yards.)
- Winston under 23.5 passing touchdowns. (Koerner’s note: Would bet down to under 21.5 passing touchdowns.)
- Jalen Hurts over 655.5 rushing yards. (Koerner’s note: Would bet the over up to 685 rushing yards.)
- Josh Allen under 480.5 rushing yards. (Koerner projects 450 rushing yards on the season.)
- Tua Tagovailoa over 3,900 passing yards. (Koerner’s note: Probably wouldn’t take it if the line moves up.)
- Sam Darnold under 23.5 passing touchdowns. (Raybon’s note: Carolina as a team had 1.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season.)
- Aaron Rodgers under 4,550 pass yards. (Raybon’s note: Green Bay was the slowest paced team last season.)
- Matt Ryan under 29.5 passing touchdowns. (Raybon’s note: He would need to average 1.74 passing touchdowns per game to hit this mark. Ryan has averaged 1.6 per game or fewer in three of his last four seasons.)
- Lamar Jackson under 7.5 rushing touchdowns.
Running Back Player Prop Picks
- D’Andre Swift under 900 rushing yards. (Koerner’s note: Would have it closer to 850, but the fact that Swift won’t be 100% to start the season gives the under a bit more value.)
- James Robinson under 1,000 rush yards. (Koerner’s note: Probably wouldn’t take this under much lower.)
- AJ Dillon under 690 rush yards. (Koerner’s note: His median is probably closer to 600 yards.)
- Saquon Barkley under 9.5 rushing touchdowns.
- Miles Sanders under 7.5 rushing touchdowns. (Raybon’s note: He had touchdowns of 82 and 74 yards last season. He had nine touchdowns on 343 carries. He’d need 307 carries for eight touchdowns next season.)
- Saquon Barkley under 1,075 rushing yards.
- Nick Chubb under 1,350 rushing yards.
- Darrell Henderson under 850 rushing yards. (Raybon’s note: Henderson would need greater than 50 yards per game to go over if he plays all 17 games. He has never averaged more than 42 yards per game.)
Wide Receiver or Tight End Player Prop Picks
- Ja’Marr Chase under 1,025 receiving yards. (Koerner projects this line at 973 yards.)
- Darnell Mooney over 705 receiving yards. (Koerner’s note: Managed to put up 631 yards last year with poor quarterback play. He’s capable of being a deep threat but that wasn’t unlocked last year. His 24 targets of 20+ air yards was 10th most in the NFL last season, but only six were catchable.)
- Kadarius Toney under 505 receiving yards.
- Eric Ebron under 500 receiving yards.
- Denzel Mims under 550 receiving yards. (Raybon’s note: He’s behind Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder and Keelan Cole on the depth chart.)
- Blake Jarwin under 525 receiving yards. (Raybon’s note: Jarwin would need to average 31 receiving yards per game. He’s never averaged more than 23 and Schultz out-snapped him 12-10 in preseason.)
- Dallas Goedert under 675 receiving yards. (Raybon’s note: He has had just a 14% yardage share under Hurts. And 14% of Hurts’ 3,650 passing yard prop equals 517 receiving yards for Goedert.)
- Adam Thielen under 990 receiving yards. (Raybon’s note: Thielen has averaged just 54.7 receiving yards per game over the last last two seasons and has missed six of his last 32 games. Also, the Vikings’ pass volume could go down with an improved defense.)