The 2026 NFL Draft begins on Thursday night with the first round set to take place in Pittsburgh, Pa. The NFL Draft will begin at 8 p.m. ET and broadcast on ESPN and ABC.
Let's dig into my NFL Draft picks for the first round, with my first two bets targeting the draft positions of Spencer Fano and Monroe Freeling.
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NFL Draft Props & Picks
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Spencer Fano Top 10 (-120)
Anyone claiming they know how this draft will play out is lying outside of the first overall pick (Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders). This board feels completely wide open.
The top four seems likely to be some combo of Mendoza, Arvelle Reese, David Bailey and Jeremiyah Love. There could be a trade into that range, but it likely just preserves that same group.
After that, it gets messy.
There’s an outside chance the Cardinals stay at No. 3 and do something unexpected like take an offensive lineman. It feels close to a coin flip right now between Spencer Fano and Francis Mauigoa for first OL off the board.
Fano has been gaining steam to go sixth overall (currently the Browns' pick). At +300, that’s obviously not a lock, but it shows where the momentum is.
More importantly, there are multiple outs if Fano doesn’t go there.
The Commanders and Saints both project more toward wide receiver if their top options are available. The Chiefs at No. 9 are very live to go OL. I currently have them taking Rueben Bain Jr., but the recent news around his involvement in a fatal 2024 accident could cause him to slide, which only increases the chances they pivot to OL.
If Fano is still on the board after the ninth pick, this bet is in trouble — but there’s still a path at 10.
The Giants could go defense early and circle back to offense, and if WR options like Carnell Tate or Jordyn Tyson are off the board, OL becomes more viable. They could also create chaos by going WR at No. 5, which would shift the entire 6–10 range in a way that likely helps Fano.
Fano's draft position prop is 9.5 with the under at -114, but it makes more sense to take Top 10 at -120 for a few extra cents given the added flexibility.
This draft is going to be chaotic, with trades and unexpected picks, but Fano feels like the type of player who won’t be hurt much by that. He has a pretty high floor in the 6-12 range, with 6 and 9 standing out as the most likely landing spots, plus realistic outs at 8 or 10, and even a wild-card scenario at 3.
In a volatile market like this, that’s enough for me to see value at -120.
Pick: Spencer Fano Top 10 (-120; FanDuel)
Monroe Freeling Draft Position Over 17.5 (+166)
This price just feels off.
I have Monroe Freeling projected in the 17-23 range, and unlike Spencer Fano, Freeling is the type of player who probably doesn’t benefit from early chaos. If anything, he’s more likely to get squeezed by it — getting +166 on that range is hard to pass up.
Working through my mock drafts, the OL order has been fairly consistent early with Fano/Francis Mauigoa off the board first, and Olaivavega Ioane likely going around 14. After that, the 4th OL off the board feels like a coin flip between Kadyn Proctor and Freeling, with Proctor holding a slight edge.
Freeling is a bit more raw for an OL prospect entering his rookie season, but he has a ton of upside. That gives him a wide range of outcomes.
I could absolutely see a team reaching for him because of that upside, but in the top half of the first round, teams tend to lean toward safer, more polished prospects, which works against him.
The biggest threat here is Detroit at 17. The Lions feel likely to go OL, but Proctor vs. Freeling looks like a coin flip, and Freeling is still +250 to +300 to go 17.
On top of that, Detroit has been one of the more unpredictable teams in the first round lately, and there’s even some noise about them trading up. So needing Freeling to land specifically at 17 with a volatile team in a coin-flip spot isn’t ideal for the under.
There are also a few ways this range gets pushed back:
• Bain sliding out of the top 10.
• Fano/Mauigoa falling further than expected.
• Kenyon Sadiq (I have 19) or Akheem Mesidor (20) getting pulled into the mid-teens.
All of that adds more competition in the 11-17 range and makes it tougher for Freeling to sneak inside 17.
I currently have him going 21 to the Steelers. He’s in that tier where I wouldn’t be shocked if he goes earlier, even inside 17, but the more likely outcome still has him landing a few picks later.
At +166, that’s enough value to bet on him falling just outside the top 17.
Pick: Monroe Freeling Draft Position Over 17.5 (+166)
