49ers vs Eagles Player Prop: Fade Kenneth Gainwell

I can’t imagine too many people are either betting on this prop or his under since he’s cleared this in eight of 10 games this season, but this is a matchup where it’ll be an uphill battle for Gainwell to clear this.

Gainwell can get two or three carries and still have a good shot of staying under this. I think he'll likely need 4+ carries in order to safely clear it.

This is the rare game where the Eagles may end up in a trailing game script. Not only do the 49ers have a great defense, but they're also very good at limiting the opposing team’s number of plays. San Francisco plays at the slowest pace in the NFL and is capable of sustaining long scoring drives.

That’s a huge reason why I’m projecting the Eagles for a bit less volume than normal here.

D’Andre Swift is the main early down back and Gainwell is the main passing down back and has the fifth-most rush attempts on third and fourth down, making it tougher for him to break longer runs. However, the Eagles have been giving Boston Scott more work recently, and he’s been way more efficient than Gainwell this year. We could continue to see Scott get mixed in a bit more.

I’m projecting Gainwell’s median closer to 8.5 here with a 61% chance to stay under.