49ers vs. Rams Odds, Picks, Predictions: Spread Is Our Expert’s Biggest Betting Edge For Championship Sunday

49ers vs. Rams Odds

Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals the biggest edge for Championship Sunday based on his power ratings (which help power our NFL PRO Projections). He has a 538-425-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow all of his picks.

49ers vs. Rams Predictions

Pick: 49ers +3.5

I have a sense of deja vu betting on the 49ers +3.5 against the Rams, considering I backed them at this exact number only three weeks ago. My analysis this time is similar to the last, in that the 49ers match-up well against the Rams — the Niners play a very physical style of football, which is one way to beat the Rams.

The 49ers went on the road to beat the Cowboys and Packers in order to make it to the NFC Championship Game (and that was after winning on the road at the Rams in Week 18 in order to even make the playoffs). The 49ers were able to advance this far despite Jimmy Garoppolo having two very poor performances in the first two playoff games with only 303 combined passing yards for zero touchdowns and two interceptions against the Cowboys and Packers. But the Rams' zone-heavy scheme is the type of defense Jimmy G has thrived against. The Rams play Cover 3/4/6 at the highest rate in the league and Jimmy G ranks first in Success Rate (out of 38 qualified quarterbacks) against Cover 3/4/6 this season.

Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford has torched opposing defenses when they blitz, ranking first in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), quarterback rating and Expected Points Added (EPA) among 40 QBs. But considering the 49ers blitz at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, they won’t have to alter their defensive approach at all, another way they match-up well against the Rams.

I'm assigning the Rams only a half-point for home-field advantage, which happens to be the most generous amount compared to my colleagues whose models also factor into our NFL PRO Projections, giving me a projected spread of Rams -2.5.

I also detailed how the status of 49ers left tackle Trent Williams has an impact on my final projection here. If he is ruled out I would bump my projection to Rams -3. Considering +3.5 is such a key number, it makes sense to lock the 49ers in now.

If Williams is upgraded to probable, we could see sharps bet this down to Rams -3 (check real-time NFL odds here).