AFC East Betting Odds, Preview: Can Anyone Topple the Patriots?

AFC East Betting Odds, Preview: Can Anyone Topple the Patriots? article feature image

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. David Butler II, USA Today Sports.

  • The New England Patriots (-500) are heavy favorites to win the AFC East for the 11th straight season.
  • Find out odds for the rest of the division, as well as how to bet the AFC East.

AFC East Divisional Odds

  • New England Patriots: -500
  • New York Jets: 6-1
  • Buffalo Bills: 8-1
  • Miami Dolphins: 60-1

The AFC East belongs to the Patriots. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have won the division crown 10 years in a row and in 15 of the past 16 seasons.

New England is expected to repeat once again as oddsmakers list them as -500 favorites. The New York Jets (6-1) and Buffalo Bills (8-1) are longshots to topple the Pats.

The Miami Dolphins, despite finishing second in the division a year ago, are 60-1 to win the division.

When converted to implied probabilities, the Patriots have a 83.3% chance to win the AFC East based on odds from the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.

The Jets check in at 14.3% with the Bills sitting at 11.1%. The Dolphins, with the worst odds of any team in the NFL to win their division, have just a 1.6% implied probability to win the AFC East.

AFC East Best Bet

According to The Action Network’s simulations, the Patriots win the division 82.3% of the time, followed by the Jets (9.3%), Bills (6.7%) and Dolphins (1.7%). Based on the implied probability and projected chance, no team is offering bettors to win the division.

Though there is one bet gamblers should consider making before the 2019 season kicks off.

Brady & Co. have won 11 or more games in nine straight seasons. The Patriots have had double-digit wins in 16 consecutive seasons. It is no wonder that the oddsmakers set the team’s win total for 2019 at 11 games.

A season ago, the Pats went 11-5. Since 2003, there have been 110 teams that won 11 or more games. The next season those same teams won 9.4 games. Teams tend to regress from one season to the next.

New England has managed to avoid regression, but this could be the year that the Patriots take a step back (relatively). The Action Network simulations project the Pats to win 10.4 games, on average.

There is a 61.3% chance the Patriots win fewer than 11 games with a chance for a push. Everyone assumes Brady and Belichick will continue to win, but this could be the year to bet the under.

How would you rate this article?