The Problem With Fading Trendy Dogs in the NFL Playoffs
At the Action Network, we preach a contrarian approach to sports betting. That means buying on bad news (teams after a blowout loss) and selling on good news (fading the Cavs after a win this season: 20-9 ATS). These tactics allow us to exploit public perception and take advantage of inflated lines.
Historically, the public likes to lay the chalk (favorites) because it’s fun to cheer for winners. Oddsmakers understand this tendency and force squares bettors to take bad numbers on popular sides.
Using the Bet Labs database, we found that at least 50% of spread bettors have taken the favorite in 79.6% of all regular season NFL games.