The Atlanta Falcons (3-7) and New Orleans Saints (2-8) meet in Week 12 on Sunday, Nov. 23. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Saints are 1.5-point favorites over the Falcons on the spread (Saints -1.5), with the over/under set at 39.5 total points. New Orleans is a -125 favorite to win outright, while Atlanta is +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Falcons vs Saints prediction and NFL picks for today's NFC South rivalry game.
Falcons vs Saints Prediction
- Falcons vs Saints pick: Saints -1.5 (-110)
My Falcons vs Saints best bet is on New Orleans to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Falcons vs Saints Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
Falcons vs Saints Week 12 Preview
When you subtract wide receiver Drake London from the Falcons offense, it gets bad in a hurry. The Falcons will also have Kirk Cousins filling in at quarterback for the injured Michael Penix Jr., who is out for the season with an ACL tear.
Cousins was solid in the first half of the season of the Falcons last season. However, he hasn't been able to move around at all so far this year, and he's been big downgrade for this offense.
The Falcons are 1-5 straight up (SU) and 0-6 against the spread (ATS) in Cousins’s last six starts dating back to last season. Since the start of 2020, he is 0-4 ATS against New Orleans and 0-3 ATS in the Superdome, per Evan Abrams.
I worry about Atlanta’s offense with Cousins at QB instead of Penix, although Penix has plenty of flaws of his own.
Penix wasn't really throwing to the middle of the field, and without London, the Falcons will probably just try to run the ball 40 times if possible.
The Saints are also coming off a bye. Tyler Shough gives them a little bit more upside at quarterback than Spencer Rattler.
Looking at their advanced metrics, Shough isn't great, and he's actually a little worse than Rattler in EPA per play, but he's improved in each of his appearances.
Shough made a relief appearance a few weeks ago against Tampa Bay, and was pretty bad. However, he was much better in his first start against the Rams, throwing for 7.3 yards on average and a touchdown, with a 62.5 completion percentage — he just didn't get to throw a lot.
In his most recent outing against Carolina, he threw a couple of touchdowns, 282 yards and 10.4 yards per attempt. He’s had two interceptions, which isn't great, but he's right around league average in non-turnover EPA with 7.1 yards per attempt.
The Saints are good defending the run, ranking seventh in EPA and 11th in success rate against the rush. It's not nearly as bad a matchup for New Orleans as it would have been if Penix and London were healthy.
The Falcons will probably be one-dimensional, relying on the run against a Saints defense that has only allowed a 39.5% success rate against opposing rushing attacks on the season.
Falcons vs Saints Prediction, Betting Analysis
Unfortunately, I missed the Saints last week as an underdog, but I still like them in this spot.
The Superdome has been a tough place for Atlanta. The Falcons have lost three straight games in New Orleans, and haven’t won consecutive games there since the 2001-02 season. Atlanta is 6-16 SU in New Orleans since right before that streak started in 2003.
The line for this game should be close to Saints -3.
This could be a game where Atlanta scores fewer than 14 points, and I think the Saints can get to 20+ points, or maybe even 23, in this matchup.
Pick: Saints -1.5 (-110)
Spread
My Saints vs Falcons betting prediction is on New Orleans to cover the spread at -1.5.
Moneyline
I'm taking the Saints spread instead of targeting the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play for the total.
