Bears vs Vikings Odds, Picks, Prediction
Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: K.J. Osborn (left) and Irv Smith Jr.
- The Vikings are favored by more than a touchdown against the Bears.
- Minnesota won in London last week, while the Bears fell to 2-2.
- Sam Farley previews the game and reveals which player prop he's betting below.
Bears vs. Vikings Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 +100 | 44 -110o / -110u | +285 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -120 | 44 -110o / -110u | -365 |
The Vikings sit at the top of the NFC South with a 3-1 record, tied with the Packers, who play earlier on Sunday and one win ahead of the 2-2 Bears.
The Vikings are strong favorites are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five meetings. We won't be betting on the spread though, we'll be focusing our attention on a Viking pass catcher.
Bears vs. Vikings Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bears and Vikings match up statistically:
Bears vs. Vikings DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 29 | 26 | |
| Pass DVOA | 32 | 20 | |
| Rush DVOA | 11 | 27 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 13 | 15 | |
| Pass DVOA | 15 | 15 | |
| Rush DVOA | 10 | 24 | |
It almost feels like a surprise that the Bears come into this at .500 given the discussion around their offense and in particular Justin Fields.
We know about the statistical struggles that Fields has had with his 34 completions this season so low that one receiver (Cooper Kupp) already has more receptions. The reality is that Fields isn't having an easy job of it, both by play calling, with the Bears seemingly intent on him not being able to showcase his talents, and by the opposition, with Fields being under pressure in 51.4% of dropbacks last Sunday.
There's only so much he can do and a receiving trio of Darnell Mooney, Equanimeous St Brown and Dante Pettis must surely rank among the league's worst. Only the Panthers are averaging less scrimmage yards per game than the Bears and they need to find a way to figure that out, and fast!
The Vikings average 69.2 more scrimmage yards per game than the Vikings but seem like an offense that's very hit or miss.
Justin Jefferson is, as always, the key man and only five players have more receptions than him so far, and likewise only five players have more receiving yards than him.
The problem is that Jefferson has double the amount of touchdowns than any other player except Alexander Mattison, with Dalvin Cook only managing to find the end zone once this season and accumulate 279 yards on the ground.
Kirk Cousins' passer rating sits at 84.1 and he needs to do a better job of getting the rest of his pass catchers into play.
Betting Picks
One of Cousins' pass catchers who hasn't really erupted this season is Irv Smith Jr, with the tight end having only earned 91 yards through four games, although he has found the end zone once.
Big things were expected of the former Alabama man when he was drafted in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft but despite effectively being a wideout with a tight end designation, he hasn't really become the threat they'd have hoped.
Now he faces a Bears defense with the seventh best record against tight ends, allowing just 134 yards to the position so far this season. His line sits at 26.5 receiving yards for this game, a number he's only exceeded twice this year, both times marginally. For that reason I'm backing Smith's under.
FanDuel Quickslip: Irv Smith Jr. Under 26.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to 26.5
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