Bills vs Dolphins Same Game Parlay: Sunday Night Football SGP

Bills vs Dolphins Same Game Parlay: Sunday Night Football SGP

This is the last game of the NFL regular season and the stakes will be high. Buffalo and Miami are playing for the division title in the AFC East.

The last matchup between these teams was somehow both high scoring and a blowout. These teams are much different than who they were in Week 4 though. Our parlay will be built on these teams continuing to play as they have recently and for a game much different than we saw previously.

Without further ado, let’s build our Bills vs Dolphins same game parlay for Sunday Night Football.

Bills vs Dolphins Same Game Parlay (+1100; DraftKings)

• Tyreek Hill Over 7.5 Receptions (-110)
• James Cook 70+ Rushing Yards (+125)
• Josh Allen Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-110)
• Gabe Davis Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

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The big plays have not been there for Tyreek Hill recently as they have been in weeks past. In his last three games, he has not had a reception over 25 yards. Before this stretch, he had not had back-to-back games where no catch went for more than 25 yards. Teams are dialing into Tyreek and committing to stopping his speed without Jaylen Waddle to take some of the heat off. The Bills will especially be attuned to this since they already played and contained Hill once.

However, Miami still needs their playmaker to play well if they hope to win. When similar teams have done this to Tyreek, the Dolphins have fed him on quick hitters and allowed him to create after the catch. Tyreek has exceeded 7.5 receptions in seven of his eight lowest yards before catch per reception outings per pro-football-reference. I expect a heavy usage game once again.

The rest of these picks will be based on the Bills because they have had a massive transition since their bye week. Buffalo has been grounding and pounding and asking less of the passing game and Josh Allen. In their four games since the bye, Buffalo has exceeded 100 rushing yards in every game and less than 250 yards of passing offense. 

James Cook has averaged 20 carries per game in his last three games compared to 12.5 in the first 13 games. He has also had 70 or more yards in two of those three games. With both teams playing a more conservative style, I think this game will be close and allow the Bills to feed Cook without falling into a negative game script. With the heavy workload, he should be able to hit this mark once again.

As for Allen, these offensive changes have been bad for his statistical production. Allen’s four straight games under 240 yards passing is his longest streak of that nature this season, but it has come with wins.

I think Buffalo will continue to keep the passing game usage to a minimum and hope Josh Allen can make the one drive needed late rather than calling on him to play hero ball for four quarters.

Our last prop leg is a direct consequence of Allen throwing for fewer yards. In the last four games, Davis has produced three duds and one huge performance. Davis is typically the go-to on longer routes and 50-50 balls. If we are expecting James Cook to get heavy usage because it is a low-scoring affair, then those volatile plays will not be needed. 

The transition to a run-first offense has impacted Gabe Davis more than any other Bills receiver. In a game in which they probably won't be forced to throw very often, he should once again have a quiet performance.