Bills vs. Jets Week 1 Odds, Prediction: The Early Edge
Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen.
- The lines for Week 1's Bills vs. Jets have changed substantially since opening on Thursday morning.
- Sharp action has moved one side of the spread and moneyline substantially.
- And that sharp action aligned with our initial assessment of those lines. Read further.
Bills vs. Jets Odds, Prediction
The following are the odds for Bills vs. Jets, according to FanDuel. This game will take place on Sept. 11 on Monday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET.
| Bills Odds | -1.5 |
| Jets Odds | +1.5 |
| Over/Under | TBD |
| Odds according to FanDuel | |
The Bills have opened as -3 favorites when they head to the Meadowlands to face Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in Week 1.
But they should be much shorter, according to the Action Network's predictive analytics team. Our data arm has considered all associated quantitative and qualitative aspects of every NFL regular season matchup for this upcoming season and developed a fair value spread for each contest.
For this contest, the Jets should be just +0.5 underdogs on the spread. Conversely, the Bills should be at -0.5 when the market is at equilibrium.
So, it stands to reason that shortly after open, sportsbooks across the country moved the Jets down from +3 to +1.5. That includes movement on the moneyline from Jets +138 to Jets +108 at FanDuel.
In fact, our equilibrium price has the Jets as +107 on the moneyline. Currently, there's only slim value on the Jets' spread. Had you gotten in at open, there was pretty substantial EV available on the Jets.
Josh Allen and the Bills struggled offensively in the Meadowlands last season, losing to Zach Wilson on account of two costly interceptions and a missed field goal.
On the return game in Buffalo, the Bills dominated a horrible Jets offense en route to an easy victory.
But that league-bottom offense may be no more, on account of Rodgers' arrival.
Will we see the vintage, MVP-level Rodgers? Or the one who ranked middle in the pack among quarterbacks in 2022?
The marketplace is certainly less bullish on Rodgers and the Jets than our models are.
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