Bills vs Rams Player Prop Predictions: Fade Cam Akers on Week 1 Thursday Night Football
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Cam Akers.
Cam Akers Receiving Yards
|Prop||Under 13.5 Receiving Yards|
|Matchup||Bills vs. Rams|
|Day, Time||Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET|
There are a few reasons I love this prop.
- The Rams typically don’t use their RBs much in the passing game.
- Only 7% of their total passing yards went to RBs last season, which ranked dead last in the NFL. The league average is closer to 16%.
- Matthew Stafford will likely face a ton of pressure tonight
- The Bills defense ranked second in pressure rate last season, and now they have Von Miller.
- When under pressure, Rams RBs accounted for an even smaller share of the team’s receiving yards at just 4%.
- Stafford is going to be looking to Cooper Kupp or Tyler Higbee specifically when under pressure.
- Finally, Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson will likely begin the season in a 50/50 timeshare, with Akers handling most of the early down work Henderson operating as the third-down back.
I’m projecting Akers for 1.9 catches and 15 receiving yards.
You might be thinking, why do you like the under 13.5 receiving yards if you are projecting him for 15?!
It’s because his median is much lower and when I simulate the game 10,000 times, I get a median closer to 10 yards for Akers. He’s going to have games where he breaks loose for a 20-plus-yard catch and run, or games where he clears 50+ receiving yards that skew his ‘average’ closer to 15.
When it comes to a prop like this, though, we are betting on what his median will be. As you can see from the chart below (my simulation results), every yard in this range is worth 2-3% and I’m giving him a 61% chance to stay under 13.5.