The Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos will face off in the NFL Divisional Round on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Broncos are favored by -1.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 45.5 total points. Denver is a -120 favorite on the moneyline, while Buffalo is +100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Divisional Round preview and Bills vs Broncos prediction.
Bills vs Broncos Prediction
- Bills vs Broncos pick: Under 45.5 (-108)
My Bills vs Broncos best bet is Under 45.5 total points. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bills vs Broncos Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 45.5 -112o / -108u | +100 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 45.5 -112o / -108u | -120 |
Bills vs Broncos NFL Divisional Round Preview
When the Bills Have the Ball
Josh Allen put the Bills on his back both figuratively and literally at times in their 27-24 win over the Jaguars. He threw for 273/1/0 and added 33 rushing yards with two touchdowns, including an unbelievable QB sneak that turned into an 11-yard touchdown with multiple players from each team piled on top of him as he dragged it into the end zone.
Heading into Denver, the Bills are extremely thin at wide receiver.
Josh Palmer, Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers are all on IR, leaving Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks and Keon Coleman as the only three WRs on the active roster. The Bills will almost certainly elevate one or two receivers from the practice squad, depending on whether Curtis Samuel can return from IR.
This is also a tougher matchup against a Broncos defense that ranks eighth in pass defense DVOA and has the 2nd-highest pressure rate in the league.
Normally, Allen is elite at avoiding sacks, with a career pressure-to-sack rate of just 13.5%, well below league average. However, he has been sacked at a career-high 20% rate this season.
Facing an elite pressure defense, it’s reasonable to expect Allen to take a few more sacks than usual, which can quietly act as 1-2 drive killers for the Bills offense.
Buffalo will likely try to lean on the run more, but Denver ranks third in run defense DVOA, making this a tough matchup for James Cook. The Broncos are excellent at initiating contact early, allowing just 0.87 yards before contact per rush, the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.
Cook has averaged only 1.77 yards per carry when contacted at or behind one yard past the line of scrimmage, so early contact is critical, and Denver excels at that.
Denver should also be getting LB Dre Greenlaw back after missing the last couple of games with a hamstring injury, and the 1st-round bye likely helped him get closer to 100%.
With Greenlaw on the field, the Broncos have allowed 3.45 yards per carry compared to 4.06 when he’s off, a massive 0.61 difference. His return gives an already elite run defense another boost.
When the Broncos Have the Ball
Unlike the Broncos, the Bills defense has a clear weakness: run defense. They rank 12th in pass defense DVOA but 31st against the run, making this a textbook run-funnel defense. Most teams lean into that, but it’s fair to question how much Denver will actually adjust.
The Broncos have a +5.5% pass rate over expected on the season, the 4th-highest in the league. They’ve only posted a negative PROE once all season, in Week 6 against the Jets, which may have been more about playing conservatively against an 0-5 team than a philosophical shift. Even then, they barely won that game 13-11.
Denver is just a 1.5-point home favorite here, which projects them to trail at a +7% higher rate than their season average. That could force them into a more pass-heavy script than usual, even against a Bills defense that struggles versus the run. If that happens, it limits their ability to fully exploit Buffalo’s biggest defensive weakness.
Another key factor is how Denver generates offense through the air. 58% of their passing yards come after the catch, tied for the 9th highest rate in the league.
Buffalo’s pass defense specifically excels at limiting YAC, allowing the lowest yards after the catch over expected in the league according to NextGenStats.
The Bills could also get a boost if Ed Oliver returns after missing the last 11 games on IR. His presence would help both the interior pass rush and the run defense. I’ll be monitoring his status closely once inactives are released.
Bills vs Broncos Prediction, Betting Analysis
Both offenses face subtle but meaningful obstacles. Buffalo is thin at WR, facing an elite pressure defense that can stall drives with sacks, and Denver’s run defense should limit Cook.
On the other side, Denver may not be able to fully lean into the run due to game script, and its reliance on yards after the catch runs directly into Buffalo’s biggest defensive strength.
This is also a luck rankings under, and for more on that angle, specifically check out our piece.
There are paths for both teams to move the ball, but fewer explosive plays and a handful of stalled drives add up.
All of that makes Under 45.5 my pick for this game.
Pick: Under 45.5 (-108, DraftKings)
Spread
I'm staying away from the spread in this game.
Moneyline
I have no bet for either moneyline.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm going with Under 45.5 total points.
