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Bills vs. Ravens Weather: How Wind & Potential Snow Could Impact Saturday Night’s Game

Bills vs. Ravens Weather: How Wind & Potential Snow Could Impact Saturday Night’s Game article feature image

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Ravens vs. Bills Odds

Ravens Odds +2.5
Bills Odds -2.5
Over/Under 49.5
PRO Projection BAL -0.2 | O/U 50.2
Time Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
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There’s plenty of backstory to surround Saturday’s Ravens-Bills AFC Divisional Round matchup. Two 2018 first-round draft pick quarterbacks going head-to-head, the Bills coming of their first playoff win in 25 years … the list goes on.

Not lost in the mix, however, has been tonight’s forecast in Buffalo.

For a significant chunk of the week, it appeared that snow would be in play — and while the chance of a white layer on the field in-game has shrunk immensely, there’s been footage of snow pregame:

Welcome to Buffalo… ❄️

— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 17, 2021

What’s far more certain as of this morning is that there will be wind. And for bettors, that alone is worth noting.

Note: Odds, forecast as of 7 p.m. ET.

Ravens vs. Bills Weather Forecast

Whether or not there’s snow, the overcast skies in Buffalo will be met with a 14-17 mph wind blowing straight across New Era Field tonight.

That level of wind in itself has been enough for bettors to turn a profit in the past. Since 2003, games played in double-digit wind speeds have hit the under at a 55% rate, boasting a 527-438-10 record.

The theory behind the trend makes sense, too. Wind makes it more difficult to move the ball through the air, cutting down the number of big passing plays and leading to a greater emphasis on the run game. That means more gradual drives and more clock movement, all of which leads to fewer scoring opportunities.

Of course, field-goal kickers won’t thrilled to see a sideline-to-sideline breeze such as this one, either.

All of that comes without even mentioning the remaining sliver of a flurry chance, which would significantly alter the game’s style of play. In that case, perhaps no market would be further impacted than that of DFS.

From The Action Network’s Matthew Freedman:

In the event of snow, I think that both offenses will shift toward the run, and within the passing game we could see downfield attempts scaled back. For the Ravens, I think this would enhance the value of QB Lamar Jackson, RBs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards and TE Mark Andrews and hurt the value of WR Marquise Brown. On the Bills, I think snow would help WR Cole Beasley but hurt WR John Brown.

As of writing, the total has seen only a slight drop, going from 50 to 49.5. Considering that 70% of bettors are taking the over, however, any downward movement should be considered significant.

And for what it’s worth, our PRO Report has shown signs of sharp action being another factor in the total’s movement …

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