The Carolina Panthers (3-3) and New York Jets (0-6) will face off in NFL Week 7. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Panthers are 1.5-point favorites over the Jets on the spread (Panthers -1.5), with the over/under set at 42.5 total points. Carolina is a -120 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while New York is +100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Panthers vs. Jets predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 19.
Panthers vs Jets Prediction
- Panthers vs Jets pick: Jets +1.5 (-110)
My Jets vs. Panthers best bet is on New York to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Panthers vs Jets Odds
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Panthers vs Jets NFL Week 7 Preview
There are a couple of interesting aspects to consider when looking at this matchup, with the 3-3 Panthers visiting the winless Jets.
First of all, the Panthers are a much different team at home than on the road. Here's a look at Bryce Young's career performance against the spread at home: 10-6-1, barely covering with an average margin of just 1.1. The only time he was favored at home, he lost that game.
Young has never been favored on the road in his career. He's 5-11 against the spread (31%), failing to cover by more than one possession per game, a -8.6 margin.
This will only be the second time Young has been favored in his career overall, and the first time on the road. He's never even been an underdog of a field goal or less on the road until now.
So, this is a big jump coming off two wins against the two worst defenses in the league.
According to Evan Abrams, Young is 1-15 SU in his first 16 career road starts for the Panthers, tying with Dan Pastorini for the worst record by a QB through his first 16 road starts since the statistic was first tracked in 1950.
Young is also 0-10 SU on the road against non-divisional opponents, losing by an average of 14.5 points per game (3-7 ATS).
Then, we look at Panthers' running back Rico Dowdle. He’s been a revelation, for sure. He shredded the Dolphins in Week 5, but that was against the second-worst defense in the league in EPA per play coming into that game.
Last week, he carved up the Cowboys; the worst defense in the league coming into that game, and they remain the worst entering this week.
This week, the Panthers will face the Jets' defense, which hasn't been great this year. But they have played a tough schedule, and their metrics are a lot better when you remove turnovers from the equation, because they aren't forcing any. They've had terrible turnover luck.
I think the Jets can turn this into another sluggish game, where Carolina is not going to be as successful on offense, particularly running.
I’m still not completely sold on the Panthers' defense. Although, I do think they have made some legit improvements. However, my main issue with this Carolina' team is the night-and-day difference on offense when playing home and away.
This week, they are facing a Jets' defense ranks in the top-seven against outside zone runs, where Rico Dowdle has been the most efficient, averaging 11.5 yards per carry when running outside zone.
The Jets are only giving up 3.3 yards per carry and 0.8 yards before contact, both of which are top-five marks.
The Jets should be able to stop the run in this game, and that would force Young to throw more often. Also, this is a really tough matchup for wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan.
Panthers vs Jets Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm taking the points with Jets as home underdogs against Carolina this week.
Overall, the Jets are underrated here. I have them projected as slight favorites.
I'm not ready to upgrade the Panthers this much after beating the two worst defenses in the league, especially considering they trailed the Dolphins by a score of 17-0 in one of those games.
I just need to see a lot more from Carolina before getting on board with them as a road favorite. The time to jump on the Panthers' bandwagon was the last two weeks, and the time to hop off is now.
As previously mentioned, Young has never been a favorite on the road, and now he is favored by five points more than his previous best road spread, which was +3.5. And by the way, as a road underdog of less than a touchdown, Young is 2-7 against the spread.
Give me the Jets +1.5 this Sunday.
Pick: Jets +1.5 (-110)
Spread
My Jets vs Panthers betting prediction is on New York to cover the spread at +1.5.
Moneyline
I prefer the Jets +1.5, as opposed to taking them to win outright on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm not betting either side of the total in this contest.
