The Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers meet in Week 1 of the NFL season today. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Bears are 3-point favorites over the Panthers on the spread (Bears -3), with the over/under set at 47.5 total points. Chicago is a -164 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Carolina is listed at +138 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bears vs Panthers predictions and NFL Week 1 picks for Sunday, September 13.
Bears vs Panthers Prediction
- Bears vs Panthers pick: Panthers +3 (-106) / Panthers Moneyline (+138)
My Bears vs Panthers best bet is split between Carolina to cover the spread and win outright on the moneyline, with the best price tags currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bears vs Panthers Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -106 | 47.5 -102o / -120u | -164 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -114 | 47.5 -102o / -120u | +138 |
Bears vs Panthers NFL Week 1 Preview
Chicago Bears Betting Preview: Regression Candidates
The Bears are prime regression candidates this season — even head coach Ben Johnson has admitted it.
Last year, Chicago's defense benefited from a wildly unsustainable number of forced turnovers in key situations. That kind of turnover luck simply doesn't carry over year-to-year.
The Bears defense is also dealing with a cluster of injuries on the back end. They are going to be relying on a rookie safety, Kobe Bryant is hurt, and Kyler Gordon — who is one of the better slot corners in the league — might not play.
Suddenly, there are questions all over this Bears defense.
On the other side of the ball, the hype is through the roof — but there is a specific vulnerability here.
When you look at the underlying numbers, Caleb Williams struggled mightily against teams that disguised their coverages pre-snap. His metrics completely fell off a cliff when defenses muddied the picture.
Add in the fact that Rome Odunze is dealing with an injury, and this offense might not look quite as explosive out of the gates as the market expects.
Carolina Panthers Betting Preview: The Schematic Advantage
There are legitimate questions surrounding the Panthers' offensive line heading into this one as they are going to be without their starting tackles in Taylor Moton.
Normally, that’s a massive red flag that I would actively look to fade. However, I am just not worried about their offensive line holding up in this specific matchup because they are facing a Chicago defensive front that has a nonexistent pass rush.
Defensively, the Panthers actually infused their roster with a lot of talent in the offseason — but their real superpower is schematic as I alluded to above.
Last season, Carolina disguised coverages pre-snap at the highest rate in the NFL. The Panthers do an excellent job of showing one look and rolling into something completely different post-snap.
That is a massive schematic advantage going into Week 1 against a quarterback in Williams who has really struggled against defenses that are good at disguising their looks.
Bears vs Panthers Prediction, Betting Analysis
I think three points is just too much to pass up in a game that the Panthers could easily win outright.
The defensive regression is coming hard for the Bears, and the Panthers should be able to move the ball against a banged-up, turnover-dependent Bears secondary that generates no organic pressure.
On the other side, if Carolina runs a ton of cluttered Cover-3 disguises, I think Caleb Williams might throw a couple of picks and struggle to read the field.
Give me the Panthers on the spread, and I'll gladly throw them into my moneyline underdog round-robin.
Pick: Panthers +3 (-106) / Panthers Moneyline (+138)
Bears vs Panthers Betting Trends
Bears vs Panthers Weather
