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The Chicago Bears (3-1) and Green Bay Packers (2-2) face off in Week 5 of the NFL season this afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Bears are 1.5-point favorites over the Packers on the spread, with the over/under set at 45.5 total points. Chicago is a -130 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Green Bay is a +110 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bears vs Packers predictions for today's NFC North battle.
My Bears vs Packers Prediction
- Bears vs Packers pick: Packers +1.5 (-110)
My Bears vs. Packers best bet is Green Bay to cover the spread (+1.5), with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Bears vs Packers Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
- Bears vs Packers spread: Bears -1.5, Packers +1.5
- Bears vs Packers total: over/under 45.5
- Bears vs Packers moneyline: Bears -130, Packers +110
Bears vs Packers NFL Week 5 Preview
Chicago Bears Betting Preview: Regression is Looming
The Bears are laying 1.5 points on the road, marking the first time Chicago will be favored in Green Bay since 2006 when Rex Grossman faced off against Brett Favre. The market adjustment here has simply gone too far.
Chicago's defense has looked great the last three weeks, but look at the context: the Bears played the Vikings in bad weather, an Eagles offense that is completely broken, and a decimated Jets offense that essentially didn't run any plays. Geno Smith somehow attempted only 15 passes in that game against Chicago.
The Bears' defensive success is also built on an unsustainable foundation — they are classic late-down merchants. They rank 30th in rush success rate and 24th in early down dropback EPA, yet they are sitting at No. 1 in the NFL on late downs in both categories.
Early downs are much more predictable and stable, so regression is likely looming for Chicago.
On the other side of the ball, Tyson Bagent will likely turn the ball over a couple of times. He's been highly turnover prone, and they might be missing their best running back with Kyle Monangai and D'Andre Swift both missing practice.
Green Bay Packers Betting Preview: The Perfect Spot for Jordan Love
The Packers offense hasn't looked good this season, but the underlying metrics suggest they are trending up right when Chicago is due for regression.
Green Bay's DNA is exactly what beats this Bears defense: the Packers rank No. 1 in early down dropback EPA. More importantly, the Packers' offensive line finally showed some sings of life last week. By getting Jacob Monk and Jager Burton out of there and inserting veterans Laken Tomlinson and Kevin Zeitler at guard, their pass block win rate skyrocketed to 55% after sitting at an unfathomably low 18% prior to that.
Schematically, this is a dream spot for Jordan Love as Dennis Allen's defense plays a ton of man coverage and relies heavily on the blitz to generate pressure (ranking 21st in organic pressure rate).
Love historically shreds both.
In five career games that he started and finished against the Bears, Love has a 66% completion rate, 1,400 yards, 13 touchdowns, just two interceptions, and has only taken five sacks.
Bears vs Packers Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is the definition of a buy-low, sell-high spot.
The Bears' defensive metrics are inflated by a soft schedule and unsustainable late-down variance.
With the Packers finally fielding a competent interior offensive line, Jordan Love should be able to pick apart Chicago's blitz-heavy man coverage.
Give me the Packers as home underdogs in a revenge spot for Matt LaFleur after last year's loss in the Wild Card Round.
Pick: Packers +1.5 (-110)
