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The Minnesota Vikings (4-0) and New Orleans Saints (1-3) meet today in NFL Week 5 action. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Vikings are 1.5-point favorites over the Saints on the spread, with the over/under set at 42.5 total points. Minnesota is a -132 moneyline favorite to win outright, while New Orleans is a +112 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Vikings vs Saints predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 11.
Vikings vs Saints Prediction
- Vikings vs Saints pick: Saints +1.5 (-104)
My Vikings vs. Saints best bet is New Orleans to cover the spread (+1.5), with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Vikings vs Saints Odds
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 42.5 -105o / -115u | -132 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -104 | 42.5 -105o / -115u | +112 |
- Vikings vs Saints spread: Vikings -1.5, Saints +1.5
- Vikings vs Saints total: over/under 42.5
- Vikings vs Saints moneyline: Vikings -132, Saints +112
Vikings vs Saints NFL Week 5 Preview
Minnesota Vikings Betting Preview: The Statistical Anomaly
The Vikings are 4-0, but they are a statistical anomaly walking on thin ice.
Minnesota ranks dead last in the NFL in offensive success rate (32%) and 33% in passing success rate. The Vikings have not eclipsed 250 total yards in a game yet, averaging only 137 passing yards per game — that's the worst mark in the NFL since 2003.
Historically, teams averaging 150 passing yards or fewer in their fourth game or later cover the spread at just a 40% clip (55-83 ATS).
The Vikings are surviving purely on turnover luck and kicker variance.
Now, they are navigating a catastrophic injury report: tackles Brian O'Neill and Christian Darrisaw are likely out, left guard Donovan Jackson is on IR, Justin Jefferson is doubtful, Jordan Addison has a groin issue, and they are missing Jordan Mason.
Kyler Murray has looked completely uncomfortable running this offense, and it probably won't get any easier for him today.
New Orleans Saints Betting Preview: Prime Bounce-Back Spot
The Saints have the worst run defense in the NFL (no surprise after the Falcons' Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. gashed them for 207 rushing yards), but Minnesota (26th in rush success rate) doesn't have the personnel to exploit it.
Where New Orleans has a distinct advantage is under center against Brian Flores' blitz-heavy scheme.
Tyler Shough has been excellent against extra pressure this season. According to PFF, he has a 72% completion rate, four touchdowns, and just one interception against the blitz.
Coming off an embarrassing loss where they fell behind 21-0 to Atlanta, this is a prime bounce-back spot for the Saints at home.
Vikings vs Saints Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Vikings are the luckiest 4-0 team in the league, fielding a historically inept passing offense that is currently missing its entire left side of the offensive line and its best playmakers.
Tyler Shough should be able to successfully navigate Flores' blitz packages, likely handing Minnesota a huge reality check.
Pick: Saints +1.5 (-104)
