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The Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) and New England Patriots (2-2) will face off in Week 5 of the NFL season this afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites over the Raiders on the spread, with the over/under set at 44.5 total points. New England is a -196 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Las Vegas is a +164 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Raiders vs Patriots prediction for today's Week 5 AFC clash.
Raiders vs Patriots Prediction
- Raiders vs Patriots pick: Patriots -3.5
My Raiders vs Patriots best bet is on New England to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Raiders vs Patriots Odds
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 44.5 -118o / -104u | +164 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 44.5 -118o / -104u | -196 |
Raiders vs Patriots NFL Week 5 Preview
Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview
The Raiders rank 30th in rushing success rate. Ashton Jeanty is on the injury report heading into this game, and I don’t believe he will be the one to exploit a potential weakness in the Patriots' rush defense.
Jeanty averages just 3.4 yards per carry — he's been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on an astounding 55% of his attempts.
All of this translates to the onus falling upon the shoulders of Kirk Cousins to move the ball through the air. This spells trouble for a Vegas offense that has been relatively impressive thus far through four games. Compare that to a Raiders team that has the 29th-most difficult schedule, per Pro Football Focus.
Head coach Klint Kubiak has called plays in 66 games as either an offensive coordinator or head coach during his time in the NFL. The coverage he has struggled with more than any other is Cover 2.
Kubiak’s passing attacks have had a -0.14 EPA/play on all dropbacks against Cover 2, per FantasyPoints data.
New England Patriots Betting Preview
It may be difficult to ignore all the data points the New England offense put on paper through three weeks, but last week in Buffalo was the type of performance that can change the entire course of a team’s outlook moving forward.
Drake Maye was far from perfect, but it was much more in line with his near-MVP season than what he put on tape to begin the season.
Maye’s ascension to a difference-maker is just one piece of the puzzle.
The Patriots defense and how they match up with the Raiders offense is the reason I feel confident fading the only team in the league to cover all four of their games this season.
The Patriots' pass defense is elite. New England’s -0.11 EPA/play on pass attempts is seventh in the NFL. Their last two games have come against the likes of Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen. Per Pro Football Focus, their overall strength of schedule has been the second hardest through four games.
Patriots defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr uses Cover 2 at a significantly higher rate than the league average. If the Patriots stymie the Raiders' passing attack, it is likely they can gain an early lead — and from there, their duo of Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson should be quite efficient, similar to that of previous backfields that have faced the Raiders this season.
Kenneth Walker torched Vegas for 189 total yards by himself, the Saints' RBs racked up 135 scrimmage yards, and the Chargers' trio of backs tallied 154 total yards.
Raiders vs Patriots Prediction, Betting Analysis
Lastly, this handicap feels even more secure knowing the Patriots will not overlook this Raiders squad.
Not only are the Raiders off to a fast start, but they came into Foxboro to open the 2025 season and left with a victory.
As the astute Evan Abrams pointed out in his NFL Betting Primer, Mike Vrabel has been an extremely profitable wager when revenge is a motivator. Vrabel-led teams are 11-3 against the number when playing a team they were beaten by in their previous matchup.
Keep in mind, we have only seen this Patriots defense in one home game this year — they allowed three points to a Steelers team that has averaged 24.6 PPG in their other three games.
I like this number all the way up to -4, as the New England defense should once again prove its merit en route to a win and a cover.
Pick: Patriots -3.5 (FanDuel)
