Chris Olave Prop Pick: Bet for Jaguars vs Saints on Thursday Night Football
Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Olave.
For the Week 7 edition of Thursday Night Football, I’m looking at New Orleans' Chris Olave and betting him to go over his receiving yards prop.
Olave leads Saints pass-catchers in all major categories: targets (53), receptions (32) and receiving yards (414). He also paces New Orleans with a 30.6% first-read percentage (per Fantasy Points Data) and a 39% air-yard share (per FTN Fantasy).
As a result, Olave has cleared this line in four of the Saints’ six games. The two misses are somewhat explainable, too. Quarterback Derek Carr was dealing with a shoulder injury in Week 4 that hampered his downfield throws, and Olave turned his ankle pregame in Week 5 against the Patriots.
Both issues seemed to be behind Olave and Carr in Week 6, when Olave cashed in his 10 targets for 96 receiving yards against the Texans. That marked the fourth game in which Olave cleared double-digit targets.
Matched up against the Jaguars, Olave should find himself in another quality spot to garner target volume. Jacksonville ranks sixth in DVOA against the run (per FTN Fantasy) and Alvin Kamara has only mustered 3.8 yards per carry.
With the Saints needing to move the ball through the air, I like the individual matchups Olave is expected to see (Darious Williams, primarily). Michael Pittman (twice), Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell have exceeded 95 receiving yards against Jacksonville and each caught at least one deep pass of at least 39 yards.
I like Olave, and his 15.1-yard average depth of target, to cash in on at least one long pass on Thursday night. I have the sophomore sensation projected to push past 70 yards, and I would play this line up to 65.5.
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