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The Baltimore Ravens host the Jacksonville Jaguars tonight in the NFL Week 9 edition of Thursday Night Football. Kickoff from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Md., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will stream on Prime Video.
The Jaguars are 9.5-point favorites over the Ravens on the spread, with an over/under of 39.5. The Ravens are +410 underdogs and the Jaguars are -550 favorites on the moneyline.
Continue below for our Jaguars vs Ravens picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, over/under, and player props.
Jaguars vs Ravens Picks, Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 8:15 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jaguars vs Ravens Odds
- Jaguars vs Ravens Spread: Jaguars -9.5, Ravens +9.5
- Jaguars vs Ravens Total: 39.5
- Jaguars vs Ravens Moneyline: Jaguars -550, Ravens +410
For the latest from sportsbooks nationwide, check out VegasInsider's NFL Week 9 Odds & Action Report.
Jaguars vs Ravens Spread Prediction
The Ravens’ offensive issues extend beyond their quarterback.
Over the previous month, they ranked 30th in the NFL in both expected points added (EPA) and yards per play without Lamar Jackson. For the season's entirety, Derrick Henry has found fewer running lanes than he is accustomed to — his 0.87 yards before contact average ranks 33rd out of all running backs.
With Joey Fagnano thrust into the starting lineup, he will badly need the assistance of a complementary running game. This is not the ideal matchup to project any type of success for the Ravens’ ground game. The Jaguars allow just 3.3 yards per rush and a 42.5% success rate against, ranking them inside the top two defenses against the run in both categories.
Fagnano’s 4.3 yards per attempt from a week ago has me concerned he cannot keep pace with a Trevor Lawrence-led Jaguars offense that is beginning to heat up. Lawrence ranks as the second-best passer in football when measured by adjusted net yards per attempt — behind only Brock Purdy out of all quarterbacks with more than 100 pass attempts.
Jacksonville has outscored opponents by 70 points in the first half this season, which is the best margin in the NFL. The likelihood of Baltimore falling behind early is simply too great to ignore. In such a case, the crowd will not be a factor and any planned commitment to the running game will have to be scrapped.
With the looming acquisition of Jacoby Brissett, this may be the only start Fagnano gets this season. I expect it to go quite poorly, with the Jaguars winning convincingly.
Pick: Jaguars -9.5 (-120)
Jaguars vs Ravens Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
Attempting to analyze this game with any traditional stats is effectively meaningless given the Ravens' dire quarterback situation. While they’re getting reinforcements next week in the form of Jacoby Brissett, for Thursday Night Football it’s Joe Fagnano — their third-string QB thrust into starting duty following injuries to Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley.
Fagano went 10-for-21 passing with an interception while taking three sacks last week in relief o Jackson and Huntley, picking up barely over four yards per attempt. We’d expect Fagnano to be slightly better tonight after working with the first team at practice – but the short week makes that less likely than if they played on Sunday.
Plus, tonight the Ravens are facing a top-five Jaguars defense instead of the Bills' 20th-ranked unit. What’s equally concerning is that Derrick Henry has been largely ineffective without Jackson in the lineup — teams can stack the box and focus their attention on the running back without having to consider the threat of Jackson as a dual threat.
I don’t see the Jaguars running up the score on a short week so clearing the 40 points necessary for this game to go over will be difficult.
Give me under 39.5 which is widely available at -110 odds. I'm also on the first half to be the highest scoring half at -125 via DraftKings.
Pick: Under 39.5 (-110)
Joe Fagnano Player Props
Joe Fagnano was quite bad in his first NFL game, but considering that he was the QB3, he basically had no prep. This is a short week for the Ravens, but Fagnano having a few days to practice and head coach Jesse Minter having a few days to game plan should help.
I expect the Ravens to rely heavily on the run when they can, but they are 9.5-point underdogs and the Jaguars have one of the best run defenses in the league — the Ravens are likely going to find themselves in a trailing gamescript.
I don't expect Fagnano to play well, but the line is low enough that he doesn't have to do much to hit the over.
Pick: Joe Fagnano Over 154.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Jaguars vs Ravens Anytime Touchdown Props
By Grant Neiffer
Zay Flowers had no receptions on five targets last week as he struggled to get on the same page with third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano.
As I mentioned above, Fagnano shouldn't be as bad in this one after getting some practices in with the first team in the lead up to this game. Flowers is a dynamic receiver who will have screens and designed plays all game long, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him with a massive target share. The potential game script also helps his cause with the Ravens as 10-point underdogs.
I have the true odds here around +320.
Pick: Zay Flowers Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+380)
