Lions Best Bets vs 49ers | NFC Championship Preview

The Detroit Lions take on the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC title game on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX, with the Lions currently 7- or 7.5-point underdogs against the 49ers, depending on the book.

Our experts have been tracking their picks all week long ahead of the NFC Championship. For you Lions fans and backers, here are our Lions best bets vs the 49ers in our NFC Championship Preview.

By Simon Hunter

Another week of the books making Purdy a seven-point favorite in the playoffs. That's a bold strategy, Cotton — let's see if it pays off for 'em.

Can we for once bet on the feel-good story of the season and have it work out for us? Of course, I’m taking the Lions moneyline. It’s damn near +300. But the fact we can get +7/+7.5 on a team that never stops fighting is the play.

The moment feels like it’s never too big for Goff, who’s already made a Super Bowl run in his career. He’s also a much better quarterback now than he was back then with the Rams.

The 49ers sacked the opposing QB at a rate of 4.2% this season. When Goff faces teams that has a rate of 4% or higher, he is 28-16-1 ATS in his career, including 15-4 ATS as a Lion and 7-1 ATS this season.

The Lions have the offensive weapons to keep this close. I think we see their defense play an all-or-nothing style in an attempt to get Purdy uncomfortable and force him to beat them down the field. We know that’s the Lions' biggest weakness. They’ve struggle all season against the pass, but still went 13-6 ATS.

I have to take this number and throw a little on the moneyline.

Pick: Lions +7.5 & Sprinkle Moneyline | Play to +7

By Sam Farley

It's safe to say Jameson Williams hasn't met the hype after being selected 12th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. However, if he comes up big on Sunday, he could earn himself a spot in Lions folklore. For all the talk about the Lions secondary being bad, and they are, the 49ers are also weakest in that area.

Against a poor secondary it certainly wouldn’t be a shock if Williams’ elite speed causes them issues. His receiving line stands at 28.5, a number he’s hit in four of his last five games.

Pick: Jameson Williams Over 28.5 Rec. Yards

By Sam Farley

St. Brown enters into this contest with four 100-plus yard games in his last six, but I'm backing him to go over 7.5 receptions at +105 instead.

He’s a real target hog for the Lions, with 187 targets in 18 games this season, an average of 10 per game. In his last five games, he’s only cleared the 7.5 mark twice, but I expect him to go over here.

He's up against a fairly poor secondary and game script should lead to the Lions passing a lot with the 49ers favored by 7.5 points.

Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 7.5 Catches

By Michael Crosson

Jared Goff is playing some of the best ball of his career right now. He completed 81% of his passes for 277 yards and one TD in a win over the Rams on Wild Card Weekend, and then completed 70% of his pass attempts for 287 yards and a pair of TDs in a win over the Bucs in the Divisional Round. He never turned the ball over in those two contests.

Generally speaking, Goff gets a bad rap for making the occasional boneheaded play. However, all things considered, he’s done a pretty good job of protecting the football this season.

Betting on a QB to avoid throwing an interception isn’t nearly as fun as rooting for them to actually throw one. But it’s tough to deny the value in Goff to stay under 0.5 at plus-money given the fact that he’s turned the ball over through the air in just two of the Lions’ last nine games.

Pick: Jared Goff Under 0.5 Interceptions

By Billy Ward

Data on which team won the opening coin toss and what they chose to do with that win — kick or receive — are frustratingly hard to come by in the NFL. With that said, as a longtime Lions fan, I couldn’t help but notice something in the playoffs.

In both games so far, Detroit won the opening coin toss. Most coaches now choose to defer possession to the start of the second half – but not Dan Campbell. The uber-aggressive Campbell has chosen to receive the opening kick in both Lions playoff games, which has led to Detroit scoring first in both games — though not on the opening drive in one of the two.

Assuming the 49ers continue to go with the more traditional option of kicking off, that nearly guarantees Detroit gets the first crack at possession. While that doesn’t mean they’ll score against a tough 49ers defense, it’s enough that +120 on them scoring first is a strong bet.

For what it’s worth, San Francisco allowed Green Bay to score on the opening drive last week, and Detroit has a far more dangerous offense.

Pick: Lions to Score First