Dolphins vs Patriots NFL Odds, Prediction | Expert Pick for Total on Sunday Night Football

Dolphins vs Patriots NFL Odds, Prediction | Expert Pick for Total on Sunday Night Football article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa (left) and Mac Jones (right).

Patriots vs Dolphins Odds NFL Week 2

Sunday, Sept. 17
8:20 p.m. ET
Dolphins Odds
-110o / -110u
Patriots Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Sunday Night Football for Week 2 in the 2023 NFL season has arrived, so let’s break down Dolphins vs. Patriots odds in the first edition of this AFC East rivalry game.

bet365 has Miami as 2-point favorites on the spread and -130 on the moneyline as of late Sunday afternoon, though a number of sportsbooks — including FanDuel, DraftKings, PointsBet and BetMGM — are offering the Dolphins at -2.5.

With the Bills losing to the Jets in Week 1 – and New York losing Aaron Rodgers (torn Achilles) for the season – Dolphins vs. Patriots has taken on added importance in the AFC East and playoff race.

Last season, New England and Miami split the season series, with each side winning at home. Can the Patriots protect home field at Gillette Stadium and avoid an 0-2 start, or will Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins stay hot in Week 2?

Let’s preview Sunday Night Football and make a Dolphins vs. Patriots pick.

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Dolphins vs. Patriots

Matchup Analysis

The Dolphins impressed in Week 1 as they piled up 36 points and 14 explosive passing plays of 16-plus yards in a 36-34 win over the Chargers.

Miami's offense should be one of the league's best as long as Tua Tagovailoa is upright, but I'd still expect it to come back down to earth in Week 2. For one, Miami won't be facing a Chargers defense that has allowed 60 points in their last six quarters, dating back to the playoff loss against the Jaguars.

Secondly, the Patriots defense was impressive in Week 1 and held the Eagles to just 251 yards on 61 plays (4.1 yards per play). Most importantly, the Patriots allowed only one explosive pass play of 16 or more yards.

Bill Belichick's defense had success against the Dolphins in Tagovailoa's lone start against them under Mike McDaniel. In that matchup, Week 1 of last season, New England held Miami to 307 yards and 20 points.

Bet Miami vs. New England at FanDuel

Dolphins -2.5

Patriots +2.5

The Patriots offense is a cause for concern.

Four offensive lineman — Trent Brown (concussion), Mike Onwenu (ankle), Cole Strange (knee) and Sidy Sow (concussion) — are listed as questionable, with Brown and Sow failing to practice all week.

DeVante Parker (knee) is banged up, and offseason acquisition Juju Smith-Schuster got benched in the fourth quarter last week. Mac Jones threw for 316 yards, but averaged only 5.9 yards per attempt, while the Dolphins held Justin Herbert to 229 yards and 6.9 yards per attempt.

The Dolphins were gashed on the ground for 233 yards last week, so that's likely where the Patriots will attack under new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien.

The Patriots, however, struggled to run the ball with their banged-up offensive line and gained only 76 yards on 22 carries (3.5 yards per carry). The Dolphins should also be better against the run with new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio not having to worry about an explosive passing game.

Dolphins vs. Patriots

Betting Picks & Predictions

Divisional games tend to be lower scoring, and this is a matchup between two of the best defensive minds in the game in Belichick and Fangio.

According to our Action Labs data, Week 2 divisional totals that opened 43 or higher are 44-22 (67%) toward the under since 2005, covering by 3.3 points per game.

Pick: Under 46.5 | Play to Under 44

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