Dolphins vs Patriots Player Props, Picks, Spread: 4 Best Bets for Sunday Night Football
Dolphins vs Patriots Odds Sunday Night Football
It's time for Dolphins vs. Patriots picks, odds, player props and more for Sunday Night Football.
The Miami and New England spread has the Dolphins as favorites in this AFC East rivalry game at Gillette Stadium. Both sides are covered, as we have betting analysts who favor the Patriots, and another who's on the Dolphins — plus a rushing yards player prop for Rhamondre Stevenson.
Our staff of NFL analysts are all over this game with this complete betting preview. From Dolphins vs. Patriots spread picks to player props, here are our experts' Sunday Night Football best bets.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Dolphins vs. Patriots
By Simon Hunter
Yes, I'm asking you to bet another home 'dog on Sunday night in primetime. Yes, I know what happened last week, which was the last time we were in this spot.
You have my word that the Patriots won't lose this game 40-0.
Everyone loves Miami in this spot. All week it's been Tua this, Tua that. The Dolphins' starting QB is even second in the NFL MVP odds!
It's been nothing but love for the Dolphins so far, so don't you want to fade that noise? Well, I have a treat for you.
The Patriots have top-five defensive talent with one of the greatest defensive coaches in the history of the NFL. Now, with Bill O'Brien calling plays on offense, the Patriots looked like a different team this season. Mac Jones threw his third touchdown of the season last week, and it took him until Week 8 last year.
Why could I see the Patriots running for 150 or more yards against this Miami defense? Because O'Brien is great at attacking a defense's weakness, and that's where the Dolphins' is.
This will be a close game. Just take the points.
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Dolphins vs. Patriots
Bill Belichick gets to face the league's hottest, most unstoppable offense, an attack no one seems to have any answers for defensively. Sound familiar? We've seen this movie before, and we just saw a version of it in Week 1 against the vaunted Eagles offense. Belichick always has a plan, and you just know he spent the past seven months scheming up something good for all this Miami speed.
Bet the under 46.5. Both matchups went under this number last year, and Dolphins game only finished above 47 six times. We also love primetime unders (66% last four years) and home dog unders (61% last two years). Belichick always slows these games down and finds a way to keep them ugly and close.
But if we're going under, I'm getting greedy. Give me Patriots +2.5, too, both together in a +275 Same Game Parlay. All the Belichick trends as underdogs and after a loss haven't been as reliable without Tom Brady, but the Patriots fit a number of Week 2 overreaction trends and three points is too many in these underdog Belichick spots when he grinds things to a halt. Time to get aggressive.
Note: Shop around to see if you can get Patriots +3 or the under at 47, since both of those are key numbers when betting the NFL.
Dolphins vs. Patriots
By Cody Goggin
It appears that New England is getting a lot of love in the markets for their defensive performance last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. However, it is more clear after Thursday Night Football this week that this appears to be more of a problem with the Eagles’ offensive play calling than it was a positive look for the Patriots’ defense.
Meanwhile, we just saw what Miami’s offense was capable of last week. They put up an astounding 0.674 EPA per dropback against Los Angeles while Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill went crazy. Bill Belichick may be a defensive genius but I don’t think that he will be able to completely stop what this offense wants to do.
Despite Mac Jones’ box score numbers looking great last week, he was not efficient on a per play basis. Jones threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns last week, but it took 54 attempts to do so. On the week the New England offense ranks 23rd in EPA per play and 13th in success rate. Through the air they were 23rd in EPA per dropback and 17th in passing success rate. Bill O’Brien is certainly an improvement from the Patriots’ play-calling last year but they have not yet taken the next step.
Additionally, the New England offensive line is a concern. Guards Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu missed last weekend’s game but were limited this week in practice. Tackles Trent Brown and Sidy Sow both did not participate in Friday’s practice with concussions and are questionable. Even starting center David Andrews popped up on the injury report earlier this week but was removed on Friday.
I think that this week we see Fangio’s defense make adjustments from a week ago and take advantage of this banged-up Patriots offensive line. I also have faith in the Miami offense to continue to produce as they walk away with the victory in Foxborough.
Pick: Dolphins -2.5
Dolphins vs. Patriots
By Ricky Henne
Rhamondre Stevenson stunk it up last week, carrying the ball 12 times for 25 yards. However, that came against a stout Eagles run defense that not only shut down the Patriots in Week 1, but gave up a grand total of 28 rushing yards Thursday night against the Vikings.
Now Stevenson faces a Dolphins’ run defense that was flat-out atrocious in their season opener. The Chargers averaged the third fewest rushing yards a year ago (89.6 ypg), yet mauled Miami with a ridiculous 233 yards on the ground. Bill Belichick’s well known for tailing his gameplan from week to week, so I’d be shocked if he doesn’t commit to pounding the rock after watching how hapless the Dolphins looked a week ago.
Truth be told, I’m not totally sold on Stevenson. I doubt I’ll bet on him many times this season. However, while I’m not a fan of the player, I’m a fan of this matchup, though won’t go over the 50.5 most books are offering.