Dolphins vs Ravens Same-Game Parlay: 4 Picks, Including Devin Duvernay, Chase Edmonds Props
Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images. Pictured: Rashod Bateman (left), Lamar Jackson (right).
The new-look Dolphins rolled past the Patriots in Week 1 as Tyreek Hill dazzled with 94 yards on eight receptions. The Ravens, meanwhile, blew out the Jets on the road as Devin Duvernay hauled in a pair of touchdowns.
This is going to be one of the most exciting — and most watched — games of the Sunday slate, so why not have a little extra fun?
Here’s a same-game parlay with a longshot that could turn into a big payday!
Don’t overthink this one. The Ravens are better coached, more well rounded and they have the home-field advantage.
The Dolphins took down the Patriots by double digits, but they were held to just three points in the second half. They barely outgained New England (307-271) and only won by 13 despite a three-turnover advantage.
If it weren’t for a 42-yard touchdown by Jaylen Waddle, the narrative could have been totally different entering Week 2.
While the Ravens didn’t look all that impressive either, they could be getting back J.K. Dobbins (knee; questionable), who is a huge upgrade over Kenyan Drake. The run game was severely lacking against the Jets — and we saw Lamar Jackson barely scramble, too.
Things should be different this time around. Miami could soon become a public darling, but I’m extremely high on this Baltimore team. Even without CB Kyle Fuller, the Ravens should have no problem slowing down Tua Tagovailoa.
I believe the Ravens were playing a bit conservative against the Jets, knowing they would have no problem winning. Buy the Ravens to win outright here.
Under 27.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
One of the bright spots in Baltimore’s season-opening win, Duvernay scored two touchdowns on four receptions and tallied 54 yards. But I’m not so bullish on him to have a repeat performance.
For starters, he took just 29 of the team’s 56 snaps (51.8%). While it was the second most of all wide receivers, the Ravens used plenty of heavy-set packages in which backup tight ends Isaiah Likely and Josh Oliver also saw plenty of snaps alongside Mark Andrews.
Duvernay’s aDOT was just 6.02 last season, meaning he was used in shorter distances and in less explosive situations. Even though he had two scores last week with an aDOT of 11.75, I’d expect that number to drop against Miami.
This prop is low for a reason. In what I believe will be another positive game script, the Ravens should rely on the running game. That’ll leave Duvernay with a quiet performance against Miami’s secondary.
Over 22.2 Receiving Yards (-113)
Despite just a 2.1 average rush in Week 1, there was a lot to love about Edmonds’ performance.
Edmonds entered the season as the expected No. 1 back in this offense — over Raheem Mostert and Co. — and the snap count backed that inclination. He played 38 of the 60 snaps — and 13 more than Mostert.
He was the third-down back, too, which is where he really thrives. Edmonds, one of the better pass-catching backs in the league, hauled in all four targets for 40 yards in Week 1. Last year, he totaled 43 receptions in 12 games.
While they are two different offenses and the Jets were operating in a negative game script nearly the entire second half, both Michael Carter and Breece Hall combined for 13 receptions and 78 yards against the Ravens.
I believe this number is way too low for Edmonds. He’s the main passing back and in a negative game script, he should be the safety valve for Tagovailoa as the Dolphins try to march down the field.
Most of the attention will be on Hill and Waddle — especially in the prop market — but there’s value here on Edmonds’ receiving yards.
Anytime TD (+750)
OK, I know this number is high. But hear me out.
Under head coach Mike McDaniel, we’ve seen Mike Gesicki become a ghost who serves primarily as a blocking tight end.
The beneficiary of this situation? Durham Smythe.
In Week 1, Smythe played 38 of 60 snaps. Gesicki sat at 25. The Dolphins didn’t have many red-zone opportunities — the only target went to Trent Sherfield — so there’s little information on which tight end will get the priority.
That’s why I’m taking a shot with Smythe as such a heavy longshot. If McDaniel continues to use Smythe, and he plays the majority of the snaps near the red zone, this number should be nowhere near +750.
Because this is a same-game parlay, I think it’s worth the add to boost the odds tremendously. This could be wildly off-base and McDaniel could go back to Gesicki in Week 2, but the snap count discrepancy is alarming.
Smythe is a big body and with so much attention on Hill and Waddle, it’s not out of the question for Tagovailoa to play it safe and target the tight end in the end zone for short distances.
If you want to play it safe, look at Rashod Bateman to score a touchdown at +250. He hauled in a 55-yard bomb from Jackson to score in Week 1 and is the No. 1 receiver in Baltimore’s offense. The Minnesota product should have plenty of opportunities this week against Miami’s secondary.
The Parlay (+5479, FanDuel)
- Baltimore Ravens ML (-190)
- Devin Duvernay Under 27.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Chase Edmonds Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Durham Smythe Anytime TD (+750)