Falcons vs. Dolphins Betting Guide: Count on Some Preseason FitzMagic?

Falcons vs. Dolphins Betting Guide: Count on Some Preseason FitzMagic? article feature image

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins Betting Odds

  • Spread: Dolphins -3.5
  • Over/Under: 35.5
  • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET

The Dolphins host the Falcons in one of 11 Preseason Week 1 matchups on Thursday night. Let’s take a look at key storylines for both teams, complete with betting and daily fantasy analysis.

Atlanta Falcons

Dirk Koetter served as offensive coordinator in Atlanta from 2012 to 2014 before spending the past four seasons as the head coach in Tampa Bay. The Falcons weren’t quite as prolific with Koetter calling plays as they were with Kyle Shanahan, but they were still fairly dominant over that stretch.

  • 2012: 26.2 points per game (seventh); 5.8 yards per play (sixth)
  • 2013: 22.1 PPG (20th); 5.4 YPP (14th)
  • 2014: 23.8 PPG (12th); 5.8 YPP (eighth)

There’s reason to believe Koetter and Matt Ryan could surpass their previous bests if the Falcons’ franchise quarterback continues to play some of the best football of his career.

  • Completion rate: 69.4% (No. 4 in 2018 among 32 QBs with at least 8 starts)
  • Yards: 4,924 (No. 3)
  • Touchdowns: 35 (Tied for No. 3)
  • QB Rating: 108 (No. 4)
  • Yards per attempt: 8.1 (No. 7)
  • Adjusted yards per attempt: 8.7 (No. 4)
  • Fantasy points per game: 22 (No. 2)
Dan Quinn
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dan Quinn

Alas, Dan Quinn continues to be one of the league’s least profitable preseason coaches, notching a 4-13 record against the spread.

Miami Dolphins

The Adam Gase era in Miami produced 23 wins, 25 losses and essentially zero offensive explosions. Overall, only the Bengals (81 consecutive games) have a longer active streak without scoring at least 40 points than the Dolphins (58).

It’s unlikely the Dolphins have the pieces in place to both reign in Ryan Fitzmagic’s gunslinger mentality and fix what was far from the world’s greatest offensive line in 2018:

  • Pro Football Focus’ No. 28-ranked pass and run blocking unit
  • Football Outsiders’ No. 14-ranked offensive line in adjusted line yards per rush
  • Football Outsiders’ No. 31-ranked offensive line in adjusted sack rate

I’m not a fan of Quinn’s preseason record, but these are a lot of points to lay in a glorified scrimmage.

LEAN: Falcons +3.5

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