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Gabe Davis, Hayden Hurst Player Props: Expert Picks for Bills vs Bengals

Gabe Davis, Hayden Hurst Player Props: Expert Picks for Bills vs Bengals article feature image
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Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Gabe Davis.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NFL plays of the day and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Gabe Davis
Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110; FanDuel)

Davis has had an up-and-down season serving as the Bills‘ secondary receiver behind Stefon Diggs. He’s accrued 797 receiving yards, eclipsing this total in half of his 14 games played.

Despite the inconsistent production, there’s a lot to like about the UCF product in this Monday Night Football matchup against the Bengals.

Cincinnati’s defense ranks 31st in DVOA against opposing WR2s, compared to eighth against WR1s (data per Football Outsiders).

And those splits show in their recent box-scores: Kendrick Bourne (100 yards), Chris Godwin (83), Donovan Peoples-Jones (114) and Marques Valdez-Scantling (71) all led their respective teams in receiving over Cincinnati’s prior four games.

In what could be a high scoring affair, Davis should get plenty of opportunities to cash in on this prop. I have the third-year wideout’s receiving yardage projected in the mid-50’s and would play this prop to 47.5 yards.

Pick: Gabe Davis Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

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Hayden Hurst
Under 14.5 Longest Reception (-105; DraftKings)

Hurst returns to the lineup after missing three games with a calf injury. Prior to that, he had stayed under this line in six of his 12 games played.

In his first game back, he gets a brutal matchup against a stout Bills defense. Buffalo ranks second in DVOA against tight ends (per Football Outsiders), with opponents staying under this line in nine of 15 contests.

Even if Hurst returns to a full allotment of snaps, I don’t have him clearing this line. I’d play this to -130.

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