Garrett Wilson Player Props: Expert Pick for Jets vs Dolphins

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards

Week 18 in the NFL is always tricky relative to player props. Player and team motivation is always in question, especially for those already eliminated from playoff contention.

The New York Jets do not have anything to play for, having been bounced from the playoff pool. However, I’m still on wide receiver Garrett Wilson and his receiving yards prop.

Wilson has put together a terrific rookie season, with 1,014 receiving yards to lead the Jets. He leads all first-year players in the category, and is one of the front-runners for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

So while his team has nothing to play for, I like Wilson to clear this line, something he has done in 8-of-16 games.

Breaking it down further, Wilson was 2-for-3 to the over in quarterback Joe Flacco’s starts earlier this season. In fact, he is 5-for-7 to the over in games not started by the embattled Zach Wilson.

With Flacco taking the snaps today, I like the Ohio State product to produce. He should thrive against a Dolphins defense that ranks 25th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric against the pass.

I’m counting on the rookie to put the cherry on top of his first season. I have Wilson projected close to 70 receiving yards and would play this to over 57.5.