Packers-Lions Betting Preview: How to Find Value in This Pick ‘Em

Oct 07, 2018 11:54 PM EDT

Betting odds: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

  • Spread: PK
  • Over/Under: 51
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: With bettors having to lay nothing to back Aaron Rodgers vs. Matthew Stafford, you better believe they’ve done so.

Nearly 70% of bets are on the Packers as of writing (see live data here), but the line is frozen at PK, where it opened, indicating that bookmakers think sharp money might be waiting if it moves to Lions +1. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Matthew Stafford is 2-9 against the spread in his career against Aaron Rodgers — his least-profitable opposing QB by far (-7.2 units). But when you look at the cover differential, the numbers are a bit deceiving.

Stafford is covering 48.2% of his starts against everyone but Rodgers, failing to cover the spread by 0.4 points per game. Against Rodgers, he is covering 18.2% of games, but is failing to cover the spread by only 0.7 points per game. Evan Abrams

No quarterback has been more profitable against his division rivals than Rodgers since he entered the league in 2008. He’s 36-19 (66%) ATS when playing the NFC North. John Ewing

Metrics that matter: This game might come down to red-zone production. I don’t think either team will have trouble moving the ball, but the Lions have been atrocious once they get inside the 20-yard line with a league-low 33.3% touchdown percentage. Stuckey


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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford

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