The Green Bay Packers (2-0) and Cleveland Browns (0-2) will face off in Week 3 of the NFL season. Kickoff is set for in 1:00 p.m. ET from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Packers are 8-point favorites over the Browns on the spread (Packers -8), with the over/under set at 41.5 total points. Green Bay is a -450 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Cleveland is +350 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Packers vs. Browns predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, September, 21.
My Packers vs Browns Prediction
- Packers vs Browns pick: Browns +8 (-110)
My Browns vs. Packers best bet is on Cleveland to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Packers vs Browns Odds
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
Packers vs Browns NFL Week 3 Preview
I'll keep it on brand.
Let's go with the ugliest pick on the board in Week 3: Browns +8 against Green Bay.
I was high on the Packers entering the season. I bet on them to win the Super Bowl back in May, prior to them acquiring Micah Parsons. Now they have Parsons, the defense looks amazing, and they truly look like one of the top teams in the NFC.
However, the Packers are currently being priced as if they are on par with the very best teams in the league in this spot, and we don't necessarily know that they have reached that level yet. This very may well be the peak of where we value this Green Bay team.
The Ravens were listed around -11.5 at home against Cleveland last week. The Browns now return home to face the Packers in a non-conference game in Week 3, and Cleveland is still receiving eight points on the spread?
Once you factor in a few points for home-field advantage, that's basically the same price tag Baltimore had last week.
Beating the Lions is no small feat for any team, but there's a chance we may be overrating Green Bay's win in its season opener. The Packers drew Detroit in Week 1 with a fresh set of coordinators on both sides of the ball. It's no surprise some growing pains have come along with that transition.
Then, the Packers took down the Commanders by a score of 27-18 on Thursday Night Football, which may appear to be another impressive win, coming against one of the participants in last year's NFC Championship Game.
However, I'm relatively low on the Commanders this season.
I expected the Packers to handle business at home in that game. So, their second win didn't move the needle all that much for me either. Plus, Matt LaFluer has always been great in the first few weeks of the season over the course of his career.
Packers vs Browns Prediction, Betting Analysis
There are two main reasons for concern if you are betting on the Browns in this spot.
First off, the Packers will have a rest advantage after playing on Thursday night last week. Second, LaFluer's impressive track record early in the season.
Everyone is talking about how great the Packers look, with many crowning them one of the top teams in the league already. However, there's a still a chance Green Bay isn't quite as good as we may think right now, and this may be the peak of its valuation.
Conversely, it seems like everybody wants to sell the Browns after last week's performance. However, the Browns faced Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow in their first two games of the season and their defense held up pretty well in those contests. At times, it looked elite.
Don't be fooled by the final score of 41-17 in the Browns' latest loss to Baltimore. The Ravens' offense only gained 14 first downs on 240 total yards in the game. Derrick Henry had 11 carries for 23 yards. Baltimore's offense struggled relative to what the score indicates.
Push comes to shove, I trust the Browns' personnel a little bit more in this spot. The addition of Parsons certainly throws a wrench into this equation. But this is still an elite Browns defense, playing at home, catching over a touchdown with a low total.
I’m buying low on Cleveland in Week 3.
Pick: Browns +8 (-110)
Spread
My Browns vs. Packers betting prediction is on Cleveland to cover the spread at +8.
Moneyline
Although I will be betting on the Browns to cover the spread, I'm not betting their moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from the total in this matchup.
