The Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) and Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) meet in Week 13 on Sunday, Nov. 30. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Chargers are favored by -9.5 over the Raiders on the spread; the over/under is 40.5 points. The Chargers are -525 moneyline favorites while the Raiders are +390 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Week 13 preview and Raiders vs Chargers prediction for today's AFC West clash.
Raiders vs Chargers Prediction
- Raiders vs Chargers pick: Chargers -9.5 (-110)
My Raiders vs Chargers best bet is on the Chargers to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Raiders vs Chargers Odds
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +390 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -525 |
Raiders vs Chargers Week 13 Preview
The Chargers were embarrassed in the game prior to their bye week by the Jaguars, but I am expecting a bounce-back performance.
Justin Herbert is 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in his career off a Chargers bye week, and most importantly, with two weeks since their last game, the coaching staff of Los Angeles has had ample time to mask the loss of left tackle Joe Alt.
It’s no secret that Herbert’s passing numbers take a hit whenever Alt is not protecting his blindside. However, a game plan with the short-passing attack as the foundation of the offense will be effective against the Raiders, who have just 20 sacks this season on opposing passers, one of just six teams with 20 or fewer.
The Chargers have had to pivot to a predominantly short-passing attack in previous spots throughout Herbert’s career, so it’s not something they will be unfamiliar with executing. The Chargers offense has also shown the ability to move the sticks on third down, despite having to see their sets turn into third-down situations consistently.
Los Angeles faces third down at the third-highest rate in the league, although it converts 46% of those into a new set of downs, which is the second-highest mark in football. It’s also worth noting that the Raiders defense is 29th in third-down conversion rate this year.
The way the Chargers defense makes the opposing offense attack them is the main reason I like them to win with a margin on Sunday. The Chargers allow just 5.3 yards per pass attempt, fifth-best in the league.
Their pass defense (and the Texans) are the only two units that have generated as many interceptions as touchdown passes surrendered. Teams have also struggled to move the chains by throwing against the Chargers, with just 94 passing first downs, the second-fewest this season.
Geno Smith has struggled with interceptions, and when these two met earlier this season, he gifted the Chargers three takeaways while passing for a season-low 4.2 yards per attempt.
I do not know where this Raiders offense turns to generate points in this spot. Their running game is nonexistent, as they cannot stop penetration in the backfield. Ashton Jeanty has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage consistently, and he may not even be 100% healthy heading into today's game.
Chip Kelly was relieved of his duties as the playcaller in Las Vegas, but it’s hard to project any coordinator having success with the league’s worst offensive line at their disposal.
Both of their tackles rank outside the top 65 tackles in Pro Football Focus grade out of 81 qualified players, and that is not even the problem area for this offensive line. The interior three of this line have played very poorly since the loss of Jackson Powers-Johnson to injury.
Raiders vs Chargers Prediction, Betting Analysis
I usually avoid backing substantial favorites in games where the total is set near 40 points or below, but I will make an exception.
The Raiders cannot run the ball, and their pass protection will not hold up against this Chargers unit.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they once again struggle to score more than 10 points, a feat they have failed to achieve in three of their last five games.
Pick: Chargers -9.5 (-110, bet365)
Spread
My pick for this game is the Chargers to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moenyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
