Lions vs. 49ers NFC Championship Game Odds: How, Why Lines Are Moving
Picture by Matt Roembke.
Lions vs. 49ers NFC Championship Game Odds
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
The Lions are by far the worst liability of the weekend for major American sportsbooks, and they only expect it to get worse.
That's because the public is backing the 49ers — in futures, and especially with moneyline bets this week — to win outright given their priors.
And, look, it's a fair assessment on the aggregate. This is, after all, the team that ranked No. 8 all-time in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), behind just the undefeated 2007 Patriots, the 1991 Washington team, 2010 Patriots and 1985 Bears, this season's Ravens, the 1987 49ers and 1996 Packers.
The team has one of the most star-studded defenses in football to go along with a litany of talented skill position players, including the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year in Christian McCaffrey. And Brock Purdy was playing at an MVP level until the end of the season.
That star-studded defense has shown some holes in recent weeks, though, and the unit overall can be sieve against the run. Insert the No. 6 ranked rush offense in football in Detroit and you can see why sharps have their eyes on this position.
At PointsBet, the Lions winning "would be the worst outright result," trader Will Radice told the Action Network.
DraftKings head of trading Johnny Avello reaffirmed that notion. At DraftKings, the Lions winning the Super Bowl is the worst remaining result available after the Cowboys, Eagles, Browns and Bills were eliminated.
"I'm anticipating that there's going to be a ton of Lions moneyline in this game," Avello said. "This isn't abnormal, but with the size of this game and the size of the bets that are going to come in, we'll probably need the 49ers by the time the game starts."
As far as the spread goes for this contest, it's vacillated aggressively between Lions +6.5 and +7 since Sunday, but seems to have hit an equilibrium point at +7. If wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out, Radice said, he expects the line to move to Lions +6 or +6.5.
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