Lions vs 49ers Odds & Pick: NFC Championship Game Preview
Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Amon-Ra St. Brown (left) and Christian McCaffrey.
Lions vs 49ers Odds & Pick: NFC Championship Game Preview
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 51 -110o / -110u | +245 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 51 -110o / -110u | -305 |
The Lions are in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1991. They'll face a 49ers team that's in much more familiar territory, making its fourth conference championship appearance under head coach Kyle Shanahan.
The 49ers are the home favorites in this matchup for good reason. San Francisco ended the regular season as the No. 2 team in the NFL according to DVOA, and it ended the regular season with the No. 1-ranked offense.
The 49ers can beat you in every way, whether with an elite defensive performance, a big day from Brock Purdy and the No. 1-ranked pass offense or with Christian McCaffrey and the No. 2-ranked rush offense.
Let's preview each side and get into my Lions vs 49ers pick.
When it comes to attacking the Lions, their secondary is what you want to target.
Detroit finished the regular season with the top-ranked run defense in the league, per DVOA, but it finished 16th against the pass. We've seen Baker Mayfield throw for nearly 350 yards and Matt Stafford throw for nearly 375 yards against the Lions so far in the playoffs.
Purdy didn’t have his best game against the Packers on Saturday night, but he showed what he's capable of on the final drive to beat Green Bay. Deebo Samuel's status is unknown, and his presence would be a massive boost, although it seems unlikely he will play. I believe the 49ers and Shanahan are pretty sure of that as well and will plan accordingly.
Samuel is such a massive part of what the 49ers want to do, and I believe that is why the 49ers struggled for stretches against the Packers. They weren't prepared to be without someone who enhances their passing and rushing attacks in such a big way. The eight days that Shanahan will have to plan for life without Samuel will be a big help, though.
Purdy has some doubters but at the end of the day, he finished the 2023-24 regular season as the No. 1 quarterback in EPA per play, EPA+CPOE composite and multiple other massive factors. Missing Samuel would be a blow, but not one that will render the 49ers hopeless on offense.
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It’s hard to find a weakness on this 49ers team. However, one thing is a near certainty and that is that Lions head coach Dan Campbell knows he's the underdog in this spot and will coach accordingly.
Campbell has done an unbelievable job this season and is about as reliable as it gets when it comes to coaching aggressively when it comes to fourth-down in-game decision-making. Campbell will take it to the 49ers and coach to win the game, and he could catch Shanahan being too conservative like he was at the end of the first half against Green Bay.
If you can point out one weakness on this 49ers team, it's the run defense. San Francisco finished the regular season 15th in Rush DVOA on defense, and we just saw Aaron Jones rip into them for more than 100 rushing yards on just 18 carries. The Lions No. 4-ranked run game should be able to move the ball between the athletic Jahmyr Gibbs and powerful David Montgomery.
One other major concern for the Lions is the home/road splits of Jared Goff. The Lions QB has been incredible when playing in Detroit, with a 42-9 TD-INT ratio in 17 games. In 17 away games, though, he has a 17-10 TD-INT ratio. That's a big difference between averaging 2.5 passing touchdowns per game at Ford Field to just one on the road.
Hopefully, for Goff’s sake, there's good weather in San Francisco (which is what the forecast shows as of Sunday night) and that won't have too much of an impact. However, a key turnover or missed opportunity from Goff could be the difference in a game where the Lions need to be close to perfect.
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Lions vs 49ers Pick
The 49ers have been the best team in the NFC and a top-three team in the NFL all season. The Lions have done an incredible job to get this far, but I think they are outmatched in this matchup. If Purdy can play the way he did basically the entire regular season, he should be able to shred this Lions’ secondary with shots to Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle.
The Lions should have some success on the ground, however, the 49ers will be ready for that. They should load the box and make Goff beat them against their elite secondary. Shanahan has been in these games many times and should be more comfortable with how to approach this NFC Championship Game environment, especially playing at home.
If you can get the 49ers -6.5 at -120 or better, I think it's worth paying for the juice. However, past -120, I would just take the 49ers -7. San Francisco should outlast Detroit and be able to pull away from them down the stretch with their elite offense. The 49ers should be set to make another Super Bowl appearance under Shanahan after winning this game by over a touchdown.
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