Dolphins-Colts Betting Preview: Back Miami as a Trendy Dog?

Betting odds: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

• Spread: Colts -7.5
• Over/Under: 51
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: This line was quite stable until news broke that Ryan Tannehill would be returning.

Initially 10-point dogs, the Dolphins moved to +9 after the announcement. The line moved even more on Wednesday morning thanks to a steam move, driving them to +7.5.

Miami had been a trendy dog with Brock Osweiler set to start and remains one with Tannehill under center, getting 55% of spread bets as of writing (see live data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Dolphins are averaging 19.9 points per game, which ranks 26th in the NFL.

Andrew Luck has had a ton of success when facing teams with poor offenses. According to our Bet Labs data, he's 19-6-2 (76%) against the spread when facing a team averaging fewer than 20 points per game, profiting bettors 12.6 units and making him the second-most profitable NFL quarterback behind Tom Brady. — Evan Abrams

Need a survivor pick or moneyline parlay spot?Luck is 33-12 straight-up as a favorite, including 9-1 SU when listed as a touchdown favorite. His only loss came in 2013. — Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Colts' run blocking vs. Dolphins' front-seven

Starting Colts center Ryan Kelly (knee) has been ruled out, but the rest of the league’s third-ranked offensive line in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards per rush is set up well against the Dolphins' 17th-ranked defensive line.

Marlon Mack’s combined adjusted line yards per attempt rate (9.35) is the fifth-highest mark this week. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Colts

The Colts are hoping to have safeties Malik Hooker (hip) and Clayton Geathers (knee), but cornerback Nate Hairston (ankle) again looks questionable while Kelly has already been ruled out.

The Dolphins are dealing with several more injuries. Safety T.J. McDonald (knee), tight end A.J. Derby (foot, knee), wide receivers Danny Amendola (hamstring) and DeVante Parker (shoulder), running back Kenyan Drake (shoulder) aren't guaranteed to suit up Sunday.

Same goes for starting offensive linemen Ted Larsen (neck), right Tackle Ja’Waun JAmes (knee) and left tackle Laremy Tunsil (knee) aren't guaranteed to suit up Sunday.

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz

DFS edge: Luck joins Dan Marino, Peyton Manning and Brady as the only quarterbacks to throw three or more touchdowns in at least seven consecutive games.

The only "problem" with Luck’s performance is that fantasy investors have had a tough time nailing down exactly who will reap Luck’s rewards any given week.

T.Y. Hilton has been the clear-cut No. 1 receiver since the team's Week 9 bye, but the rest of passing game's pecking order has been muddled over the past two weeks.

Hilton and Luck have historically been better inside the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium (per our FantasyLabs Trends tool), and Hilton’s $6,500 price tag on DraftKings comes with a +2.4 Projected Plus/Minus. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Dolphins +7.5

NFL lines are set based on recent performance. The Colts trucked the Titans in a 38-10 win last week as Luck threw three touchdowns and Hilton caught nine balls for 155 receiving yards and two scores.

Given Indy's recent play, it's fair to suggest that the Colts' line will be inflated in Week 12.

Contrarian gamblers can profit by fading teams after strong showings at home. Since 2003, teams that won their previous game at home by 21 or more points have gone 173-221-14 (44%) ATS the following week.

Bettors fading teams like the Colts have returned a profit of +43.73 units over that span. — John Ewing

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.